I.P.O.
It’s - Probably - Overpriced
Ever heard the phrase, “Buy the hype, regret the swipe?”
That’s basically IPOs in a nutshell.
An IPO, or Initial Public Offering, is like a company throwing a debutante ball, except instead of dancing, they’re offering up shares of the company to the public for the first time. It’s the moment when a private company says, “Hey world, we’re ready to go big or go broke—want to join the party?” For savvy traders, it’s a golden opportunity to snag a seat before the rocket (hopefully) takes off. But remember, not all IPOs are winners—some are just expensive hype in a fancy suit!
What it Really Means?
IPO = It’s Probably Overpriced, but every year, countless traders still line up like it’s Black Friday, only to walk away with empty wallets and shattered dreams.
Why?
Because IPO day isn’t about YOU—it’s about insiders cashing out while you F.O.M.O. your way to financial frustration.
This Friday was no exception.
Natural gas exporter Venture Global ( VG ) shares fell 4% in its first day of trading, as the company looked to test investor appetite for energy stocks amid the Trump administration efforts to implement a sweeping agenda aimed at boosting oil and gas production.
Did you know?
Only 25% of IPOs actually outperform the market in their first year.
(Source: Renaissance Capital)
Do the quick math on the stats above, and here’s the brutal truth: nearly 80% of IPOs have ended up burning Joe Public—the so-called dumb money!
That’s right, the “get-rich-quick” crowd is getting poor even quicker. It’s like paying VIP prices to watch the market hand your wallet to someone else.
Translation: You’ve got better odds flipping a coin.
Here’s the thing:
At Time Freedom Trading, we teach you to recognize traps like these. Trading isn’t about jumping on every shiny new opportunity; it’s about understanding the market, applying proven strategies, and creating your Financial Flywheel to earn time freedom.
Our students learn this golden rule:
“Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.” – Warren Buffett
Instead of gambling on IPO Day, here’s the smarter move:
- Watch the stock for up to 6 months post-IPO on a Weekly Chart to see the price range after 1 -2 earnings reports.
- Look for patterns and weaknesses. Ideally support below the opening price.
- Let the chart confirm a bullish move during a bullish season for its sector / time of year.
- Then... make your move.
This is one of the strategies we teach in detail in our
"Cohort Coaching Program"—a system designed to make trading accessible, profitable, and fun.
Some IPO Stock Examples to Review
EXAMPLE 1:
Reddit (RDDT) IPO hit the market on March 18, 2024, but it seems the hype train derailed fast. It dropped nearly 20% before even posting its first earnings report! Guess Wall Street gave it an *upvote* just long enough to cash out, leaving everyone else to scroll through their losses.
EXAMPLE 2:
CAVA (CAVA) IPO served up its debut on June 12, 2023, but it seems the market wasn’t hungry. In just four months, it lost 30% of its flavor—and shareholders' money. Looks like Wall Street ordered a spicy IPO, but all they got was a soggy pita.
EXAMPLE 3:
ARM (ARM) IPO strutted onto the market stage on September 11, 2023, only to trip and faceplant, dropping over 18% in its first month. Ouch! It didn’t even stick around long enough to deliver its first earnings report before it started draining shareholders' wallets. Talk about making a splash... right into the deep end!
Many of those "quality companies" actually find their groove in the first 2–3 years after their IPO debut—kind of like teenagers who finally grow into their awkward phase.
Here's the play: Do Your Homework.
Dig into the roadshow presentations investment bankers put together before the IPO (basically, a corporate sales pitch on steroids). Then, keep an eye on how the market reacts to their earnings once they’re public. That way, you can figure out if the company is a true gem or just wearing a lot of glitter.
The goal? FIND THE VALUE
Pinpoint its "value" role in the sector and the market without paying the IPO Day 1 hype premium.
Translation: Wait for the party to settle down and then join the fun when you know it's worth your time.
How much longer can you afford to play it safe in your 9-to-5 while missing out on life-changing market opportunities?
If you could learn a system that helps you trade better and earn time freedom, wouldn’t you WANT to know how?
👉 Prime your potential.
👉 Position yourself for profits.
Join our FREE Office Hours Session and learn what it takes to THRIVE in 2025.
"Because if you knew better, you’d do better."
As Jesse Livermore, the OG of trading, once said: “A man must believe in himself and his judgment if he expects to make a living at this game.”
Stop dreaming and start doing.
Time Freedom Trading offers
one-on-one coaching to help you master divergence, dominate the market, and reclaim your most precious resource: time.
So, I’ll ask again…
When is your "when"? Start earning time freedom. Start today. Not someday.
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"Wall Street never changes. The pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes."
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