Q3 Earning Season IS HERE!

Because the market isn’t a democracy. It’s a dictatorship run by Jerome Powell and his dot plot disciples.

Futures are slightly green as the NASDAQ holds above the 23K level — still flexing at all-time highs while the “Trillion Dollar Tech Club” keeps marching like a liquidity legion.

We’re on Day 10 of the government shutdown, yet the bull market turns 3 years old — proving that markets can still rage while Washington is closed for business.

The IRS gave traders a rare win: capital gains brackets are up, meaning more of your money stays yours (for now).

Meanwhile, Fed Governor Waller says more rate cuts could be coming but warns the Fed “must be cautious.” Translation: they want to cut without crashing.

The “Debasement Trade” is the new hot term on Wall Street — code for investors hedging against governments devaluing their currencies through endless money printing. (Gold, Bitcoin, and real assets are back in the spotlight.)

And in geopolitical theater:

• China retaliated with port fees on U.S. ships, mirroring America’s new tariffs.

• China also opened an antitrust probe into Qualcomm, sending shares lower.

• The race to replace Powell is heating up — the shortlist is down to five names, with Waller reportedly a top contender.
  
  

WEEKLY WRAP UP

Strengths:
Markets remain resilient despite DC dysfunction. The AI liquidity loop is still alive. Earnings optimism is lifting sentiment, and traders love the new IRS tax brackets.

Weaknesses:
No government data = flying blind. China tensions are heating up. Some sectors (materials, consumer goods) showing fatigue.

Opportunities:
Earnings season = asymmetric setups. The “Debasement Trade” is gathering momentum — gold, crypto, and hard assets might catch fire again.

Threats:
Fed succession uncertainty, political gridlock, and a fragile supply chain could test this three-year-old bull. When everyone’s bullish, even good news can trigger a pullback.

Shutdowns vs. Stocks

On October 1, 2007, the S&P 500 opened the fourth quarter just 2% shy of its all-time high—only to peak days later before the financial crisis unraveled. Translation: October 1st often looks deceptively strong… but history whispers caution.

Shutdowns are noisy—but historically not deadly to markets:

• The S&P 500 has posted gains in 12 of 21 shutdowns, averaging +0.1% during the shutdown window.

• The 2018–2019 shutdown (35 days) saw the index rip +10.3%.

• The 2013 shutdown (16 days) produced a +3.1% gain.

• A year later, stocks were higher ~86% of the time, averaging mid-teen returns.

Translation: Shutdowns rarely break markets. But with permanent furloughs and delayed data in play, this one carries sharper edges.
Todays 

Today's  Tactic: Trade the Rotation, Don’t Chase the Euphoria.
The trillion-dollar tech parade has been the magnet — but quiet rotation into financials and industrials could be the next move. 

Remember: markets rotate before headlines confirm it.

Surprising Stat: The top 5 tech names now make up 36% of the S&P 500’s total market cap — a record concentration that’s historically unsustainable.

Translation: When giants wobble, the next wave of profits will come from where no one’s looking.

To master these rotations and pre-earnings setups — get the edge inside the TIME FREEDOM TRADING TACTICS NEWSLETTER

Your job today isn’t to predict — it’s to prepare.
Trade the chart, not the chatter.

Execute your process before emotion hijacks your performance.

Like Jim Rohn said: “Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.”

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Don’t fight the Fed — but don’t fall asleep at the wheel either.
Counter-trend days separate the tacticians from the tourists.

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