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Nov 12 / The BALD BULL

November 12th, 2025

The WTF Premarket Report isn’t your average Wall Street snooze-fest. It’s your daily tactical briefing—your morning intel—delivered with clarity, edge, and just enough snark to keep you caffeinated before the opening bell. Every edition breaks down the moves that matter: futures flow, Fed fireworks, political curveballs, sector rotations, and premarket movers that can make or break your day. Expect a SWOT analysis to sharpen your edge, a mindset reset to keep you disciplined, and a Bible truth that ties it all back to purpose. This isn’t noise—it’s navigation. Because in this game, you don’t need more headlines, you need clarity, conviction, and the courage to pull the trigger.

WEDNESDAY 
November 12th, 2025

Hump Day Hustle
"The Market’s Got a Camel Complex"


“The Dow’s at Records, but Tech’s in Timeout” 

Welcome to Hump Day, where the market’s acting like it just realized it left its wallet at the gas station halfway across the desert.

The Dow is flexing like it skipped leg day for ten straight years — fresh record highs, blue-chips bulging. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is wheezing in the backseat, wondering why the AI hype train suddenly ran out of gas. The rotation is real, and it’s glorious. Banks and healthcare are out here doing burpees while Nvidia naps off its gains like a hungover prom king.

Over in D.C., it’s Day 43 of the world’s longest government “pause”—because apparently, fiscal responsibility now runs on dog-years. The House promises to vote on the shutdown deal today… assuming the politicians can stop auditioning for cable news long enough to read the bill. Tune in around 4-7pm.

Meanwhile, airlines say, “Even if this circus ends, we’re still canceling flights.” 
Translation: The FAA backlog’s thicker than your uncle’s Thanksgiving gravy.

And in the middle of all this chaos, AMD walked into its Analyst Day and dropped a flex that could power half the S&P — projecting 60% data-center growth in the next few years. Wells Fargo immediately slapped a “Buy me, baby” sticker on it.

So, while AI stumbles and “ghost jobs” haunt the labor market, the old-school Dow just made history — proving once again: When the nerds lose their mojo, the suits take the stage.

Strap in, traders. It’s hump day. The market’s shifting gears. And the question isn’t “Will it last?” — it’s are you rotated, or are you roadkill?


So here we are — midweek on the market’s camelback, and you can almost hear the sand grinding between the gears. The bulls are bragging, the bears are brooding, and the bots are still backtesting last week’s fakeouts. It’s that awkward middle ground where conviction feels expensive, and hesitation costs even more.

Every headline today screams rotation — money’s leaving the shiny AI stocks and moving into the grown-up table: banks, healthcare, industrials. The Dow just hit all-time highs like it’s showing off for prom photos, while Nvidia and the AI crew are licking their wounds from yesterday’s sell-off. Add a 43-day government shutdown, “ghost jobs” haunting the employment data, and airlines canceling flights faster than Congress cancels accountability, and you’ve got the perfect cocktail of chaos and opportunity.

Translation? This isn’t a day to chase — it’s a day to choose. Smart traders know when to surf the rotation and when to sidestep the sandstorm. Let’s break it down—what’s strong, what’s weak, and where the next move is hiding.


.


KEY EVENTS TO WATCH: 

  • Shutdown vote in the House: If passes, the shutdown could end — but any tweaks by Dems may delay it further.

  • Airline-travel disruption: Job-cut clouds hang over airports — more cancellations possible.

  • Analyst day tailwinds for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) — the guidance shocker emerges.

  • Mortgage purchase applications hit highest since Sept despite rising rates: housing flow still bubbling.

  • On Holding (ON) reports strong earnings + raised guidance — a surprise bright spot.

  • Tech/AI stocks (e.g., Nvidia, CWRV) remain under pressure — watch for further rotation into old-economy sectors.





  • “The four most dangerous words in investing are: This time it’s different.” 
    — Sir John Templeton 

    PreMarket: “The Winners and Losers"

    STOCKS IN THE GREEN (+)

    +12% — BILL Holdings (BILL)
    The fintech firm is flirting with a buyout. Rumor has it private equity’s circling like sharks that smell discounted growth. Nothing attracts Wall Street like blood in the water — and potential M&A fees.

    +9% — Clearwater Analytics (CWAN)
    Cloud-native finance platform reportedly weighing a sale. Translation: when you can’t scale, you sell the cloud instead. Smart exit, solid pop.

    +8.5% — On Holding (ONON)
    The Swiss sneaker savant is sprinting ahead of the pack. Beat earnings, raised guidance, and basically said, “Black Friday? Never heard of her.” Consumers still buying kicks that cost more than gym memberships.

    +6% — Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
    Dr. Lisa Su dropped a mic at Analyst Day: +60% forecasted data-center revenue growth in 3–5 years. Wells Fargo instantly fell in love and raised its target. Tech rotation? Maybe. Leadership? Definitely.

    +6% — Alcon (ALC)
    The eye-care giant beat on earnings and reaffirmed guidance. Looks like seeing clearly is back in style — pun very much intended.

    +5% — BigBear.AI (BBAI)
    The AI defense darling keeps roaring. Announced acquisition of Ask Sage, adding more buzzwords to its battle plan. Traders love it; analysts shrug.

    +4% — Sony (SONY)
    The PlayStation parent got a tariff break worth ~$324 million in operating profit. Fewer tariffs = more Mario Kart racing (we know, wrong console — relax).

    +1% — Nvidia (NVDA)
    Minor bounce after Tuesday’s tantrum. Investors buying the dip because, well, it’s Nvidia. Just remember: not every dip is a discount.


    STOCKS IN THE RED (–)

    –4% — Circle Internet (CRCL)
    Down 4% despite beating on earnings and revenue. Stablecoin dominance (29% market share) isn’t buying investor love. The crypto crowd’s still recovering from too many “to the moon” hangovers.


    “THE TALE of the TAPE"



    Strengths:

    • Dow strength signals broad market participation—not just tech.

    • Rotation into healthcare and banks suggests hidden momentum.

    • Select high-growth names (AMD, On) showing leadership and catalyst.


    Weaknesses:

    • Tech/AI segment lagging — Nasdaq underperforming.

    • Government shutdown remains a drag on sentiment & mobility.

    • Job-opening ghost-posts add uncertainty to labour data.

    Opportunities:

    • If shutdown ends: relief rally, restored travel flow, confidence boost.

    • Entering sector rotate phase: healthcare/banks get shine; find the trade.

    • High-growth tech with guidance shock (AMD) = leading candidate for tactical play.

    Threats:

    • Shutdown may drag further if Dems insert amendments; risk of extended uncertainty.

    • Tech could roll over again if AI hype falters.

    • Macro risks: mortgage demand surprise may shift Fed / sentiment dynamics.



     
    “Smart traders don’t fear volatility
    —they invoice it."

    MARKET MEMORY

    On this day in market history: The Dow reached a record close, yet the tech-complex lagged significantly — a classic rotation pattern (see today). Recognize that when broad indices lead and narrow tech lags, the smart money moves sectors.

    TFT Takeaway: Be ready when the camel tops the hump — don’t climb awkwardly, climb confidently.
    Companies that raise full-year guidance tend to outperform the market average by ~5-10% in the next 3 months. (Apply this to On Holding.)




    “The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses on Wall Street, even among the professionals.”
    Jesse Livermore

    In other words: Sit on your hands until the market gives you permission to strike.

    “Because the best traders don’t just read charts — they read history.”

    ❓PRIOR TRIVIA QUESTION:  

    What year did the Dow Jones first close above 1,000 points—a milestone traders once thought was impossible?

    ✅  ANSWER:  

    November 14, 1972

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average first closed above 1,000 points on November 14, 1972.

    It took 76 years from the Dow’s creation in 1896 to crack that four-digit ceiling — and traders back then treated it like the moon landing of Wall Street.

    Fun fact: Within two years, the market face-planted into the 1973–74 bear market, wiping out nearly 45% of that milestone gain.

    TFT Takeaway: Every “impossible” level eventually breaks — but only for the traders patient (and prepared) enough to profit from the pullback that follows.


    ❓Today’s Trivia:

    When the Dow Jones first hit 10,000 points in 1999, traders celebrated like it was the financial Super Bowl.

    But here’s your question:

    How many times did the Dow fall back below 10,000 in the decade that followed?

    A) 2 times
    B) 6 times
    C) 11 times

    (Hint: Volatility doesn’t destroy wealth — complacency does.)

    📊 Tune in to tomorrow’s WTF Pre-Market Report for the answer — and the lesson every trader should’ve learned from that wild decade.


    “Treasure, Time, and True Freedom”

    “For where your treasure is, there your heart will be also.”

    |— Matthew 6:21

    Let’s be honest — most people don’t serve their purpose; they serve their paycheck.

    They say they want freedom, but what they really want is security dressed as certainty.

    Christ wasn’t talking about money alone. He was talking about alignment.
    Whatever you worship with your attention eventually owns your direction.
    If your treasure lives in your job, your heart stays in a cubicle.
    If your treasure lives in your fear, your faith stays unemployed.

    Trading is more than charts and candles — it’s a mirror for your mindset.
    Every position reveals whether you’re operating from creation or compensation, faith or fear, purpose or panic.

    When you shift your treasure from wages to wealth — from clocking time to compounding freedom — your identity transforms.
    You stop chasing profits and start building Providence: the point where money works for you because you finally stopped working for it.

    So here’s today’s reflection:

    Are you trading for income, or are you trading for impact?
    Because one fills your wallet — the other fills your life.

    TFT Application:
    Your true wealth isn’t in your account balance — it’s in your alignment balance.
    Each disciplined trade, each moment of patience, each smart rotation — that’s you reclaiming your heart from the wage cage and placing it back where it belongs: in freedom, purpose, and Providence.


    “Your capital compounds 
    where your conviction lives.”

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     | The "Bald Bull

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    THE TIME FREEDOM TRADING SYSTEM empowers Main Street with Wall Street knowledge and tools to compound wealth and earn time freedom through proven trading and investing strategies. Learning how the stock market works from the inside is critical to compounding wealth consistently in any market environment. Time Freedom Trading empowers you to build your own financial flywheel based upon your skills and goals.  Regardless of the technology or market volatility, with TIME FREEDOM TRADING you will have the right mentor and mental coach who will reveal the patterns in human nature that don’t repeat but do rhyme which you can profit from. Whether it’s stocks, options, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), or futures, we empower you with an effective skill set and tools for everyone at every level of experience to earn time freedom.

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