Welcome to December – Cyber Monday Stress Test”

Welcome to December — the month where everyone pretends to be disciplined while secretly praying for Santa to bail out their portfolio. It’s Cyber Monday, but the only things on sale this morning are risk assets, because pre-market decided to wake up in a mood.

After last week’s Thanksgiving sugar rush, markets are now acting like they’ve discovered the calories. Futures are red, crypto is getting folded like a cheap lawn chair, and Nvidia just dropped a casual $2 billion into Synopsys like it’s paying rent. Meanwhile, OpenAI and Accenture are teaming up to automate half of corporate America — again — and China is reminding crypto degens that “illegal activities” is still on the banned list.

Oh, and Airbus found another quality issue… because apparently “Oops, we broke the plane again” is a recurring theme. Could this finally be Boeing’s sloppy, undeserved, year-end redemption arc? Stay tuned.

This is what December does best: kicks open the door wearing Christmas lights and chaos, dumps a bucket of catalysts on your lap, and whispers:

Cyber Monday meets Risk-Off Reality Check — where the deals are everywhere except your portfolio, and the only thing rising is your caffeine intake.

Buckle up. December isn’t here to play. It’s here to expose anyone who coasted through November without a plan.

• We just finished a November to Remember:

  • Dow + S&P: 7 straight winning months.

  • Nasdaq: finally tripped, -1.5% in November, AI hangover included.

• Now we kick off December + Cyber Monday + Super Six positioning

  • Money is underexposed to U.S. stocks.

  • Managers are behind their benchmarks.

  • The final month of 2025 is basically career risk vs Santa Claus.
    
    

Pre-market is red across the board after last week’s holiday rally:

• Dow: -0.46%

• S&P: -0.66%

• Nasdaq: -0.91%

• Russell: -1.07%

• Vol & Macro:

  • VIX: 18.12 (calm… but twitchy)

  • 10-Year: 4.07%

  • Dollar Index: 99.06 (sub-100 = tailwind for multinationals)

• Hard Assets & Crypto:

  • Bitcoin: $86.135K (currently wearing a red cape)

  • Gold: $4,293

  • Oil: $58.99
    
    

This is the market whispering:

“You sure you want to coast into year-end without a plan, champ?”

Net takeaway:

Slightly risk-off open.

Vol is contained.

This is positioning, not panic.

AI & CHIP CHAINS – POWER COUPLES EDITION

• Nvidia → $2B stake in Synopsys (SNPS) at $414.79/share

  • Deep partnership to fuel next-gen compute + design automation.

  • Translation: Nvidia is buying tools AND toll roads in the AI build-out.

• OpenAI + Accenture partnership

  • Enterprise AI rollout goes from “experiment” to line item.

  • Watch consulting, cloud, and AI infra tickers for follow-through.

Read-through: AI isn’t dying. It’s just rotating from “hype stocks” to picks, shovels, and plumbing.

 CRYPTO: RISK-ON PARTY… FIRE-DRILL

• Bitcoin: ~$85.9K, down almost 6%.

• Ethereum: ~$2,827, down 6.6%.

• China’s PBOC is barking about “illegal activities.”

• Crypto-linked stocks catching a brick:

  • CLSK: -7% (giving back part of last week’s +55% rip)

  • MARA: -6.5%

  • COIN: -4%

Read-through:

• This is a positioning flush, not the apocalypse.

• But it does signal “risk-off for tourists.”

• For us? It’s a reminder: volatility is a weapon, not a personality trait.

AIRBUS ISSUE – DOES THIS HAND BA A GIFT?

• Airbus (A320 family):

  • New quality issue discovered on dozens of aircraft.

  • Comes right after software glitch fixes on ~6,000 A320s.

• Question on the table:

  Does this open a late-cycle order book tailwind for Boeing into year-end?

This is the kind of headline rotation you watch in December:

• Quality scare in one name → incremental bid in the rival.

INTEL – THE “UNDERESTIMATED” CHIP PLAYER

• Intel (INTC):

  • Holding a ~10% pre-market jump.

  • Fueled by expectations of a 2027 Apple M-series supply deal.

• Translation:

  • Intel is trying to move from “dad chip” to trusted co-pilot in Apple silicon.

  • 2027 is far away, but narrative matters now for December positioning.

HOLLYWOOD & THE BOX OFFICE BID

• Thanksgiving box office: around $294M – likely top 3–4 all-time.

• Disney’s “Zootopia 2”: ~$156M, carrying the weekend.

Not a direct market mover, but:

• Strong consumer spend + packed theaters = the consumer isn’t dead.

• That matters as we trade holiday retail, credit, and discretionary into year-end.

We’re not easing into December. 

We’re walking into a catalyst minefield:

• Today: Powell speaks after hours

  • Pre-FOMC blackout vibe.

  • He can tilt sentiment into Tuesday without changing policy yet.

• Fed backdrop:

  • Fed is in the blackout window heading into the Dec 10 meeting.

  • Market is still trying to price a “last cut” or a “we’re done” signal.

This Week’s Key Events:

• Tuesday: Earnings – AEO, OKTA, CRWD (post-close)

• Wednesday:

  • DLTR & M (pre-open)

  • CRM after the bell

  • Import prices, ADP jobs

• Thursday: DG, KR (pre-open), ULTA (after)

• Friday: PCE data – the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge

Plus:

• Amazon IGNITE Event → AI + commerce headlines

• Runway Gen 4.5 drops, claiming to beat Google & OpenAI on a key video benchmark.

  • AI video just quietly leveled up again.

  • This is long-term tailwind for compute, chips, storage, and content infra.

And yes, we survived a 10-hour CME outage Friday.

If you ever doubted counterparty risk… that was your wake-up call.

Trader’s lens:

• Winners = M&A, AI infrastructure, select leisure.

• Whiners = AI momentum darlings + crypto beta + litigation risk.

Strengths:

• Seven-month winning streak in Dow & S&P anchors a strong uptrend.

• Positioning is light – many funds underweight U.S. equities, which creates fuel for a chase into year-end.

• Dollar under 100 + rates drifting lower = a supportive backdrop for risk assets, especially large-cap growth and global earners.

Weaknesses:

• Nasdaq just broke its streak with a -1.5% November and very crowded AI trades.

• Crypto flush highlights fragile risk sentiment in speculative corners.

• Macro: we’re heading into a Fed decision + PCE + jobs with elevated expectations for a friendly tone. Any disappointment bites harder at these levels.

Opportunities:

• Santa Claus Rally window – historically, the last 5 trading days of December + first 2 of January lean bullish.

• Rotation possibilities:

  • From crowded Mega/AI trades into Super Six laggards, value, small caps, and cyclicals.

  • Airbus troubles may throw incremental love to Boeing and U.S. aerospace.

• AI narrative keeps expanding:

  • Nvidia–Synopsys

  • OpenAI–Accenture

  • Runway Gen 4.5
    → The AI Capex wave is still building. Smart money will map that into chips, tools, cloud, and infra.

Threats:

• Fed misstep risk – a hawkish nuance on Dec 10 or from Powell tonight can spark a December drawdown before any Santa pop.

• Geopolitics + China – PBOC crypto warnings remind us that policy headlines can nuke risk quickly.

• CME outage reminder: Infrastructure risk is real. When the plumbing breaks, liquidity disappears fast and moves get amplified.

• Over-reliance on a handful of mega-caps (Super Six) turns indexes into single-factor trades. If one or two crack, the whole tree shakes.

December is not one long sleigh ride. It’s two acts:

1. Act 1 (Now → mid-month):

   • Choppy, headline-driven, Fed-sensitive.

   • Great time for “Trade the Turn” plays on pullbacks in strong trends.

   • Use the T.U.R.N. Framework:

     • T – Tune In: Respect the Fed + PCE + jobs calendar.

     • U – Understand Rotation: Track where money is actually flowing – Super Six, small caps, value, or defensives.

     • R – Retracement Zone: Look for orderly pullbacks to the 20/50MA in leaders.

     • N – Nail the Power Zone: When momentum + volume + setup align, execute.
       
       

2. Act 2 (Santa Window – last 5 trading days of Dec + first 2 of Jan):

   • Historically a tailwind period as funds dress up books and retail money flows in.

   • Game plan:

     • Start building starter positions into quality leaders on controlled red days like today.

     • Use options for defined-risk call spreads instead of loading common at all-time highs.

     • Let the Financial Flywheel spin: compounding small, asymmetric edges, not swinging for one massive “Christmas miracle” trade.

“You don’t need Santa to save you.
You need a system that doesn’t care who’s in the red suit.”

Last year, Americans spent over $12 billion on Cyber Monday… while the average household had less than $5,000 invested in the stock market.

Let that hit:
People will drop thousands on TVs, gadgets, and glittery distractions…
but freeze up at the idea of investing $500 into an asset that could pay them for the rest of their life.

Here’s the freedom punchline:

Consumerism compounds your clutter. 
Investing compounds your freedom.

Every Cyber Monday, millions buy things that lose value instantly.

Time Freedom Traders buy positions that gain value relentlessly.

Which side of the compounding coin do you want to be on?

The shopper or the shareholder?

Because one of them wakes up on December 26th with boxes.

The other wakes up with options.

• The NBER officially declared the U.S. in recession.

• The S&P 500 dropped nearly 9% in a single day.

• Headlines screamed end of the world…

• But traders who studied the panic instead of marrying it were buying assets that would 3–5x over the coming decade.
  
  

Cyber Monday Surprising Truth:

• For over a decade, Cyber Monday has consistently ranked as the biggest online shopping day in the U.S.

• Billions flood through “Add to Cart” in 24 hours while most people never ask:

  “If I can impulse-buy a TV, why can’t I intentionally buy assets?”

TFT Takeaway:

• Every Cyber Monday, the crowd buys things that depreciate.

• Time Freedom Traders use those same consumer trends to buy businesses that appreciate.

• One group gets boxes on the porch.

• The other gets dividends, compounding and time freedom.
  Which group are you training to be in?

“The plans of the diligent lead surely to abundance,
but everyone who is hasty comes only to poverty.”

Why this matters for Time Freedom Trading today:

• December is the final exam on your discipline this year.

• You can:

  • Chase every red/green candle like it’s your last shot…

  • Or execute a clear plan built around catalysts, risk, and rotation.

Time Freedom Trading is about:

• Diligence over drama.

• Process over prediction.

• Abundance over anxiety.

Ask yourself before you click today:

“Is this trade part of my plan… or part of my panic?”

Because God’s pattern is consistent:

• Diligent planning → abundance.

• Hasty reacting → regret.

SEE the Market Like a Time Freedom Trader!

Most people stare at charts the way rookies stare at MRI scans —
lots of squiggles… zero understanding… and a whole lot of “uhhh, is this bad?”

Time Freedom Traders don’t look at the market.
We see it — in 3D, in real time, with clarity sharp enough to slice through Wall Street noise.

We see:

• Rotation before it rotates

• Catalysts before they explode

• Turns before they trend

• Opportunities while everyone else is still doomscrolling

This is the difference between traders and operators.
One guesses.
One reads the market like a playbook.

And it starts with using the right tools.

If you want to see what we see, the way we see it —
you need charts that don’t lie, lag, or limit your edge.

That means TradingView.

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👉 Sign up for TradingView today and start seeing the market like a Time Freedom Trader.

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Because remember —

You’re just one trade away.

• Think like a Trader and Investor
• Build your own "consistency code"
• Grow into Profits with Providence. 

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