“

The market this morning looks like a patient on a hospital monitor:
Flat line on the futures… but everyone’s staring at the heart surgeon.

Jerome Powell walks in today with the monetary defibrillator.

• Futures have priced in ~90% odds of a 25 bps cut to 3.5%–3.75%.
  
  

• But the buzzword is “hawkish cut” – rate down, tone up, and a DOT plot that basically says:
  “Enjoy this one, don’t expect another soon.”
  
  

Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 just tagged all-time highs as small caps and regional banks front-run a lower-rate world.


Lower funding costs = oxygen to the real economy… if you know how to trade the rotation instead of watching CNBC like it’s financial Netflix.

Today isn’t “just another Fed day.”

It’s the mid-December pivot point that can either fuel the Santa Claus Rally… or pull the plug on the year-end melt-up.

FED DAY translation:
Today is the “voting” circus.
Your job is to position where the weight of money is going next.

— Jesse Livermore

Macro: Fed, Yields & DOT Plot Drama

• Fed decision this afternoon: Market expects a third straight 25 bps cut to 3.5%–3.75%, but with a divided FOMC and a “hawkish cut” vibe.
  

• Fed funds futures: ~90% odds of the cut, but far less conviction about follow-through cuts in 2026.
  




• Treasury curve this morning:

  • 10-Year: ~4.20%

  • 30-Year: ~4.82%

  • 2-Year: ~3.63%
    

Bond market message:
“Yes, cut. No, don’t get cute

• Eli Lilly (LLY): Dropping a $6B plant in Huntsville, Alabama to crank out its oral GLP-1 obesity pill orforglipron and other small-molecule meds.
  

• Pfizer (PFE): Signs a $2.1B global deal with YaoPharma for an experimental oral obesity pill (YP05002) to chase the GLP-1 gold rush after buying Metsera.
  
  

Translation:
Obesity is now a multi-trillion-dollar macro factor.
If you’re not mapping this GLP-1 trade into your 2026 playbook, you’re trading like it’s 2012.

• Oracle earnings tonight: Street wants proof that Larry can fund his AI infrastructure moonshot without turning the balance sheet into a debt piñata.
  

• Walmart x Alquist 3D-Printed Buildings:

  • Landmark deal to 3D-print more than a dozen Walmart buildings and other commercial properties—largest commercial deployment of the tech yet.
    

• Thrive Market:

  • Dropping alcohol entirely and going all-in on the non-alcoholic boom, with that segment projected to hit $5B by 2028.
    
    

Macro takeaway:
Real estate is getting printed, booze is getting ghosted, and AI infra is the new railroad.

Apple & The Analyst Hype Machine

• Apple (AAPL) just grabbed another big price target hike – Wedbush lifted PT to $350 on iPhone momentum and AI optimism, one of the most bullish calls on the Street.
  

Apple isn’t trading like a sleepy mega-cap anymore.
It’s being repriced as an AI hardware + ecosystem toll booth.

Today’s “Big Analyst Calls” 
– AI & Consumer Heavy

Top notes out this morning:

• Nvidia (NVDA) – still a Street darling with repeated PT bumps in recent weeks on AI demand.
  

• Amazon (AMZN) – initiated Buy at Guggenheim, $300 PT.

• PepsiCo (PEP) – upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan, $164 PT.

• Roblox (RBLX) – Buy at B. Riley, $125 PT.

• SharkNinja (SN) – Buy at TD Cowen, $135 PT.

• GE Vernova (GEV) – Outperform at Oppenheimer, $855 PT plus raised outlook.
  
  

Street is screaming one thing:
AI + Infrastructure + Brand-moat Consumers are where the big boys are allocating.

The Flatline Before the Shock

• DOW: +0.03%

• S&P 500: 0.00%

• NASDAQ: -0.06%

• RUSSELL 2000: -0.16%

• VIX: 17.31

• BITCOIN: $92,340

• GOLD: $4,226

• OIL: $58.34

• 10-YR: 4.199%

• DOLLAR INDEX: 99.101
  
  

Calm… but not comfortable.

This is the silence right before Powell opens his mouth.

1. GE Vernova (GEV) – ~+10%

   • Raised multi-year revenue outlook, targeting $52B revenue and 20% EBITDA margin by 2028, and doubled its dividend plus bigger buyback.
     
     

2. EchoStar (SATS) – >+5%

   • Upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley, PT raised to $110, playing the spectrum and satellite optionality.
     
     

3. Blue Owl Capital (OWL) – ~+3%

   • Upgraded to Strong Buy at Raymond James with a $65 target, as fears about redemptions fade.
     
     
     
     

The Read: 
Smart money loves cashflows + yield + duration in a lower-rate world.

1. AeroVironment (AVAV) – >-4%

   • Missed FQ2 EPS (0.44 vs 0.78 expected) and cut full-year guidance; market clipped the drone premium.
     
     

2. GameStop (GME) – about -6%

   • Revenue slipped ~4.5% to $821M, missing expectations, even as EPS came in positive. Meme magic isn’t paying the bills.
     
     

3. Cracker Barrel (CBRL) – roughly -8%

   • First-quarter revenue missed (about $797M vs $802M est.), stock getting punished in pre-market.
     
     

The Read: 
Miss your numbers in December and the market doesn’t give you biscuits—it gives you a beatdown.

Strengths:
The rate-cut narrative plus December seasonality is still working in the bulls’ favor. Historically, December has been one of the strongest months, with the S&P 500 posting around +1.3% average gains over the last 35 years and the Santa Claus Rally period averaging similar returns with a high hit rate.


Add in a ripping Russell 2000 and a fresh high for small caps, and you’ve got risk appetite expanding beyond the mega-cap Magnificent Few.

Weaknesses:
Treasury yields are trying to bottom, not collapse. A 10-year camping around 4.2% means the cost of capital is still real, not free.


Plus, the Fed is politically fractured—“hawkish cut” means the committee is split between protecting jobs and fighting inflation. That indecision can translate into choppy tape and head-fake moves on intraday charts.

Opportunities:
GLP-1 obesity wars (Lilly, Novo, Pfizer) and AI infrastructure (Oracle, hyperscalers, chip leaders) are turning into multi-year capital flows, not one-quarter fads.

Add in 3D-printed commercial real estate and the alcohol-free consumer trend, and you have new secular themes that can be harvested with options and swing trades across 2026.

Threats:
If Powell’s tone is too hawkish—or the DOT plot signals fewer cuts ahead—the Santa Claus setup can stall, just like December 10, 2024, when the market’s year-end rally hit resistance ahead of inflation data and stocks faded. 

A failed rally into year-end is often a warning shot for the next year’s returns. Santa doesn’t always show up… and when he doesn’t, bears tend to wander down to Broad and Wall.

On Dec 10, 2024, the S&P 500 stumbled for a second straight session, as the year-end rally hit resistance ahead of key inflation data. Bulls got a reminder that even strong December seasonality can pause when macro catalysts loom.

Holiday Trend Stat:

• Since 1950, the Santa Claus Rally window (last 5 trading days of December + first 2 of January) has delivered around +1.3% average returns, with positive outcomes roughly 76%–79% of the time.
  

TFT Takeaway:
The end of the year historically favors bulls—but not in a straight line.
Dec 10 is often the “check-point candle”:

• Are we pulling back to launch?

• Or rolling over into a failed Santa setup?

Your edge: Treat each December pullback as a diagnostic, not a disaster.

December is statistically the best month of the year for U.S. stocks. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged about +1.3% in December, and the Santa Rally seven-day window has delivered ~1.3% average gains with positive returns about 79% of the time—far higher than the typical 7-day stretch. 

Trading Nuance:

• Light holiday volume + tax-loss selling fatigue + year-end bonus flows = asymmetric upside for strong names on dips.

• But failed Santa rallies often foreshadow weaker returns next year.

So ask yourself:
Are you positioned like someone hoping December works out…
or like someone systematically harvesting this seasonal edge with a playbook?

An engulfing candle occurs when a new candle’s body completely “swallows” the prior candle’s body, signaling a sharp shift in control from buyers to sellers (bearish engulfing) or sellers to buyers (bullish engulfing). 

Backtests show bullish engulfing patterns have roughly a 60%+ reversal success rate when used with context and confirmation, with some studies citing around 63%.

One engulfing-candle algo on ES 30-min even showed ~66% win rate and 237%+ returns in a recent backtest.

How to Trade It – TFT Style:

1. Start with the T.U.R.N. Framework (Trend Context)

   • T – Tune In:

     • Confirm the bigger trend (e.g., daily uptrend) and check market internals (VIX, breadth, volume).

   • U – Understand Rotation:

     • Is this stock in the current money flow? Example: GLP-1, AI infra, small-cap financials.

   • R – Retracement Zone:

     • Price pulls back into a key zone: prior support, VWAP,  daily trendline.

   • N – Nail the Power Zone:

     • Watch for StochRSI turning up through 20 or down from 80 as the engulfing candle prints.

2. Bullish Engulfing Entry (Trend Reversal / Turn to the Upside)

   • Look for:

     • Clear down-swing within a bigger uptrend.

     • A bullish engulfing candle that closes near its high and fully engulfs the prior red candle.

   • Entry idea:

     • Enter on the next candle above the engulfing high (confirmation).

     • Stop below the engulfing low.

     • Target: prior swing high for options, choose a slightly ITM call dated 1 week - to 5 months out depending trade time frame chart  to capture trend continuation.

3. Bearish Engulfing Entry (Trend Reversal / Turn to the Downside)

   • In a clear uptrend, wait for:

     • Price running into resistance (prior high, supply zone).

     • A bearish engulfing candle that swallows the prior green candle and closes near the low.

   • Entry idea:

     • Enter below the engulfing low on the next candle.

     • Stop above the engulfing high.

     • Use puts or short-biased spreads when broader market internals support downside.

4. Risk Management – Defend the Flywheel.

   • Only take engulfing setups aligned with the macro tide (e.g., don’t slam bearish engulfings right into Santa Claus Rally season unless yields and Fed tone support a breakdown).
     
     

KEY PRINCIPLE:

You don’t chase the candle; 
you trade the context around it.

Engulfing candles are “power handoff bars” – they show where one side finally rips the steering wheel away from the other. You’re not predicting the turn—you’re waiting for the handoff, then riding the direction of force.

Why this matters to Time Freedom Trading & Fed Day:

• December is harvest season in the markets.

  • All year you’ve been sowing: learning setups, refining risk, logging trades.

  • The holiday effect (Santa Rally, lighter volume, upbeat sentiment) is the reaping window—if you’ve been faithful to the process.

• The verse doesn’t say when the season hits. It just promises:
  “In due season… if we do not give up.”

Trading application:

• You don’t force trades just because it’s December.

• You stay faithful to your system (T.U.R.N., E.D.G.E., Consistency Code), let the market’s seasonality align with your preparation, and harvest only the high-probability turns.

• Time Freedom isn’t about one miracle trade.
  It’s about compounded obedience to your edge.

Mindset check:
Are you trading today like a gambler chasing Santa…
or like a steward of your capital, patiently sowing and reaping with intention?

If you’re tired of letting the market, the Fed, and your calendar boss you around, it’s time to install a Wealth Operating System instead of winging it:

• Build your Financial Flywheel so capital compounds while you work, travel, or sleep.

• Learn to trade the turn, not the noise using the T.U.R.N. Framework and the E.D.G.E. Protocol.

• Design a system that respects your career, your capital, and your calling—not just your FOMO.

Join Time Freedom Trading today and set up 2026 as the year your portfolio stops behaving like a side hustle and starts operating like a business.

Imagine this:

• One year from now, looking back at Fed weeks not as “stress weeks,” but as planned opportunity windows your system already knows how to handle.

Would that change how you show up in the market?
Would that change how you show up in your life

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That’s all it takes to start compounding your way to freedom.

You’re not just waiting on the Fed.
You’re one trade away from changing your life.

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