Yesterday Wall Street popped champagne for the third Fed rate cut.
This morning, everyone’s squinting at the bill… and it’s labeled “Oracle, layoffs, and AI hangover.”

The market loved Powell’s 25 bps “hawkish cut” and ripped about 1% higher. Then Oracle stepped in, missed revenue, and basically slapped the whole AI complex with a “maybe you’re overvalued, sweetheart” sticker. Meanwhile, the real story is the job market quietly wobbling while everyone pretends it’s fine.

Welcome to December: Santa rally dreams on one screen, layoff memos on the other.

The Hawkish Cut and the Shaky Job Chair

The Fed delivered rate cut #3: 25 bps off the top, language sharp enough to shave with. Markets heard “cut” and ignored “caution,” so stocks ripped and yields slipped.

But the vote was 9–3, with dissents on both sides — some wanted no cut, one wanted a bigger cut. That’s the most division since 2019, and it screams, “We’re not all convinced this easing continues.”

Powell called it an “extraordinary economy,” yet we’ve got long-term unemployed near 1.8 million and participation stuck in the low 60s.

Jobless claims around 1.838 million continuing, roughly 100K lower, sound good… until you remember layoff announcements have topped 1.1 million this year. Translation: the labor market isn’t collapsing, but the floorboards are creaking.

And yes, the Fed is quietly buying T-bills again — a stealth liquidity drip for funding markets that risk assets will happily front-run.

AI Bubble Check: Oracle Pulled the Fire Alarm

Oracle whiffed on revenue and lit $70B+ of market cap on fire, even with big AI contracts and a 400% surge in remaining performance obligations. Investors heard “massive AI capex, more debt, slower growth” and decided to hit the eject button.

The after-shock:

• Oracle pukes double-digits.

• AI darlings like Nvidia and friends catch friendly fire on bubble fears.

Moral of the story: you can’t just say “AI” and expect unlimited upside anymore. The market is finally asking, “Show me the cash flows, not just the capex.

Wild Cards on Today’s Tape

• Jobless Claims – Continuing claims near 1.838M, down about 100K. The headline is “resilient,” but Challenger’s layoff tally tells you companies are quietly tightening the payroll screws.
  
  

• Fed Afterglow – First day of trading fully digesting Powell’s dot plot: just one cut penciled in for 2026, one in 2027. That’s not a flood; that’s a drip.
  
  

• Rivian AI Day – EV maker trying to rebrand itself as an autonomy + AI story while still burning cash like a SpaceX booster.RFI
  
  

• Trump Headlines – Tanker seizure off Venezuela adds a little extra geopolitical spice to an already jittery energy tape.
  
  DISNEY + OPENAI – Disney making $1 billion investment in OpenAI, will allow characters on Sora AI video generator
  
  

— Jesse Livermore

Planet Labs (PL)
Up around +17% pre-market after crushing revenue estimates. When you literally sell “eyes from space,” beating by almost $9M in Q3 revenue will wake up the algo crowd.

Gemini Space Station
Ripping about +15% after securing a license to run prediction markets in the U.S. This is “Vegas with data” dressed up as fintech. Regulators blinked; traders cheered.

Corbus Pharmaceuticals (CRBP)
Gaining 7%+ after Phase 1a data showed a promising safety profile and early weight-loss evidence for its obesity treatment. Another entrant in the “shrink the waist, grow the market cap” trade.

Eli Lilly (LLY)
Up roughly +2% as late-stage data on its next-gen obesity drug retatrutide shows record weight loss and reduced knee pain. The “GLP-1 plus joint relief” combo is the sort of thing actuaries and portfolio managers both drool over.

Visa (V)
Up about +1% after being tagged as a “preferred quality compounder” for 2026. When the street calls you a compounder, they’re basically saying, “Just keep swiping and send us the dividend.”

Adobe (ADBE)
Off modestly after issuing meh guidance for fiscal 2026. Earnings were fine; the outlook just didn’t have enough fireworks for a market that expects every SaaS company to be a money printer on steroids.

Oracle (ORCL)
Down more than -12% after missing revenue, jacking up AI-driven capex, and spooking investors about an AI bubble. You can’t call it “chip-neutral” and expect Nvidia fanboys not to freak out.

Oxford Industries (OXM)
Getting absolutely smoked, down about -21.9% after weak guidance and a full-year EPS cut. Tommy Bahama might still sell island shirts, but the earnings aren’t sipping piña coladas right now.

Strengths
We’ve got a fresh rate cut, lower yields, and December seasonality still leaning bullish. Historically, December has delivered roughly 1.3–1.5% average gains on the S&P 500 and finished positive about 75–79% of the time. That’s a tailwind, not a headwind.

Weaknesses
The rally is increasingly narrow and AI-heavy. Oracle’s miss exposed how fragile AI sentiment is. The Fed is not promising a parade of cuts; they’re telling you the bar for more easing is high. Job data looks “fine” until you zoom out and see layoffs stacking up.

Opportunities
This kind of chop is perfect for selective rotation: quality compounders, cash-rich tech, and names that benefit from lower rates without needing AI fairy dust. Short-term, it’s a swing-trader environment where intraday reversals around catalysts are paying better than lazy buy-and-forget.

Threats
AI capex arms race, political noise, and a divided Fed. If labor cracks faster than the Fed expects, or the AI bubble narrative takes root, you get a “down, then up” December instead of a smooth Santa glide. And remember: December volatility actually ticks up on average — the VIX historically rises about +1.2 points this month.

On December 11, 2018, the stock market delivered one of the most ominous warning shots of the decade.

The S&P 500 plunged nearly 1.4%, the Dow fell over 500 points intraday, and the NASDAQ cratered more than 2% — all triggered by growing fears of a global slowdown and a hawkish Federal Reserve that refused to flinch.

It was the moment traders realized:
“Santa might skip this year.”

Yet here’s the twist…

Despite the chaos, the following two weeks staged one of the sharpest snapback rallies ever into year-end, laying the groundwork for the massive 2019 bull run.

Surprising Stat:
The S&P 500’s drop into Christmas Eve 2018 was the worst December decline since 1931 — but the rebound from Dec 26th onward was the fastest 7-day year-end recovery in modern market history.

TFT Takeaway:
December has a wicked sense of humor.
It scares you just enough to make you hesitate…
then pays the traders who stay ready.

The lesson?

Volatility in mid-December is not a threat — it’s a preview.
The real money shows up right after the shakeout.

Or in Bald Bull language:
“The market likes to yell ‘BOO!’ before it hands out the presents.”

Here’s a fun, slightly uncomfortable fact:

• December is one of the strongest months of the year, with the S&P 500 averaging ~1.3–1.5% gains and finishing green about three out of four years.
  

• Yet a huge chunk of that upside historically clusters in just seven trading days — the Santa window.
  
  

That means if you’re emotionally checked out, over-trading the chop before the window and under-prepared during it, you can easily miss the bulk of December’s statistical edge.

Skillful trading here isn’t about YOLO calls — it’s about knowing when not to trade and being ready with well-planned entries when the seasonal wind is finally at your back.

Freedom Fact: “Time freedom doesn’t require more trades. It requires better-timed trades.”

An engulfing candle occurs when a new candle’s body completely “swallows” the prior candle’s body, signaling a sharp shift in control from buyers to sellers (bearish engulfing) or sellers to buyers (bullish engulfing). 

Backtests show bullish engulfing patterns have roughly a 60%+ reversal success rate when used with context and confirmation, with some studies citing around 63%.

One engulfing-candle algo on ES 30-min even showed ~66% win rate and 237%+ returns in a recent backtest.

December isn’t just holiday lights and market melt-ups.

It’s a spiritual checkpoint — the moment where your discipline gets tested harder than your ambition.

Everyone wants the “Santa Rally.”

Everyone wants the reward.

But the harvest belongs to the trader who knows what NOT to plant late in the season.

Too many traders force setups in December because:

• “I want to end the year strong.”

• “I need one more big trade.”

• “I’ll fix my P&L before New Year’s.”

That’s not strategy.

That’s emotional agriculture.

Here’s the truth:

Late-season over-planting ruins harvests.

Late-season over-trading ruins accounts.

December is filled with fakeouts, thin volume, and emotional traps.
The prudent trader — the one aligned with Providence — doesn’t chase noise.

They protect the flywheel, guard their edge, and wait for the moments when the market actually wants to pay them.

Mindset Reframe:
This month is not about proving yourself.
It’s about positioning yourself.

The trader who enters January with capital, clarity, and conviction will outrun the one who tried to hero-trade December.

Harvest season rewards patience — not pressure.
And the market doesn’t bless desperation; it blesses discipline.

Your mission today:
- Plant wisely.
- Protect your soil.
- Prepare for the season ahead.

Because the real compounding begins when the rest of the world stops paying attention.

Fast-forward 12 months.

It’s December 2026.

The Fed is doing whatever the Fed does.

AI is on its 7th hype cycle.

But here’s the only question that matters:

Are you still hoping rate cuts save your portfolio…
or are you calmly executing a proven trading operating system that funds your lifestyle, your legacy, and your time freedom?

You just read a full breakdown of:

• How the macro winds are shifting.

• Where rotation and reversal trades are setting up.

• How to weaponize something as simple as an engulfing candle for asymmetric entries.
  
  

The next move isn’t more information.

It’s installation.

So ask yourself — honestly:

If you keep trading the way you traded in 2025,
will you be any closer to time freedom by next December?

If the answer stings, good. That’s your signal.

Lock in a plan with Time Freedom Trading — the E.D.G.E. system, the $1K Way, the Tactics Newsletter, the whole Financial Flywheel — and give your future self a very different December.

Because you’re one trade, one turn, one moment of clarity away from changing your life.

And if this hit you… you already know what you’re supposed to do next.

SEE the Market 
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We see:

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• Catalysts before they explode

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• Opportunities while everyone else is still doomscrolling

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One guesses.
One reads the market like a playbook.

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Because remember —

You’re just one trade away.

• Think like a Trader and Investor
• Build your own "consistency code"
• Grow into Profits with Providence. 

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