Today’s market is like a high-end elevator doing 
a “safety test” before it goes back up.
If you know how to trade the retracement, 
you don’t need luck… you need a plan.

The S&P 500 just logged its third straight losing day after delayed jobs data confirmed the vibe: hiring is slow, firing is slow, and everyone’s pretending that’s comforting.

Key jobs notes: payrolls grew 64K (beat), unemployment ticked up to 4.6% (highest in 4+ years), and October payrolls were revised to -105K.

Translation: the economy isn’t “falling apart”… it’s “quiet quitting.”

Oil popped after headlines around Venezuela tanker actions.
Meanwhile OpenAI + Amazon talk is back on the menu — big money circling bigger compute.

Tesla hit fresh highs on robotaxi hype, but also caught a legal/regulatory “speed bump” over Autopilot marketing.
Green lights… with a cop parked behind you.

And WBD’s board told shareholders to reject Paramount Skydance’s bid.

Corporate translation: “It’s not you, it’s your valuation.”

PRE-MARKET STATS

Futures are green-ish… like a salad you didn’t ask for but probably need.

DOW +0.23%
NASDAQ +0.31%
RUSSELL +0.37%
VIX 16.33 (calm… but not cuddly)
BITCOIN $87,375 (still allergic to boredom)
GOLD $4,370 (rich-people panic blanket)
OIL $56.12 (consumer tailwind… also “inflation who?”)
10Y 4.164% (rates still doing rate things)
DOLLAR 98.458 (firm handshake energy)

— Jesse Livermore

Strengths

The market still has structural strength under the hood, even as price chops. Mega-cap tech remains the capital magnet, with AI infrastructure acting like a gravity well for institutional money. Amazon–OpenAI chatter, Nvidia-adjacent demand, and data-center pivots (like HUT) signal that capex confidence hasn’t broken—it’s just being selective.

Energy prices staying suppressed are a quiet tailwind. Lower oil acts like a tax cut for consumers and a margin buffer for corporates, which keeps recession panic contained. Meanwhile, Bitcoin holding elevated levels supports risk appetite at the margin, even if it’s not leading the tape.

Most important: the QQQ is still above its longer-term trend structure. A 50MA test in an uptrend is not weakness—it’s maintenance. Strong markets correct through time and shallow pullbacks, not free-fall.

Weaknesses

The tape is vulnerable to headline fatigue and data whiplash. Three straight down days in the S&P isn’t catastrophic, but it exposes how thin conviction is right now. The jobs data told a mixed story—soft hiring, rising unemployment—and that ambiguity is poison for momentum traders who need clean narratives.

Homebuilders flashing weakness is a reminder that rates still matter, and higher-for-longer hasn’t been fully priced out. Add in regulatory overhangs (Tesla) and political noise (healthcare subsidies), and you get a market that hesitates instead of commits.

Liquidity is also quietly thinning. December trading is notorious for air pockets, where moves feel bigger than the volume behind them. That makes false breaks more likely and punishes traders who don’t define risk.

Opportunities

This is a textbook environment for retracement traders. The 50MA on QQQ is a high-visibility level watched by algos, funds, and discretionary pros alike. That creates crowded attention, which increases the odds of responsive buying if the level holds with confirmation.

Sector rotation is alive, not dead. Lithium’s sudden revival, AI infrastructure names catching bids, and selective consumer defensives outperforming tell us money is rotating, not exiting. For traders who follow rotation instead of headlines, this is where edge lives.

Seasonality is also lining up. The approach to the Santa Rally window historically favors upside resolution after mid-December weakness. That doesn’t mean “buy blindly,” but it does mean patience plus structure can stack probabilities in your favor.

Threats

The biggest threat isn’t a crash—it’s chop. Sideways, headline-driven price action can bleed traders to death through a thousand small cuts. Elevated rates keep pressure on valuation expansion, while any surprise inflation or Fed commentary could instantly reprice risk.

Geopolitical and policy surprises remain wild cards. Oil can snap back fast. Yields can spike without warning. And in low-liquidity December sessions, those shocks hit harder and faster than usual.

Finally, trader psychology is a threat. Year-end FOMO, performance anxiety, and “I need to make it back before January” thinking create reckless decisions. The market loves to exploit that emotion.

TFT Bottom Line

This is not a market for prediction.
It’s a market for process.

Strength exists. Opportunity is real.
But only for traders who respect levels, wait for confirmation, and treat the 50MA as a decision zone, not a guessing game.

Don’t chase the move.

Trade the retracement.

Defend the flywheel.

The 50MA + 200MA (Simple. Deadly. Effective.)

50MA = the trend’s heartbeat.
Price above it? Bulls have the steering wheel.
Price below it? Bulls are riding shotgun, arguing with the GPS.

200MA = the line between “bull market” and “group therapy.”
It’s the big institutional “are we safe or not” level.

How to trade it (clean + repeatable):

• Treat the 50MA as your retracement entry zone, not a random line.

• Look for rejection wicks + reclaim candles (price tests it, fails lower, then snaps back above).

• Use the MA as structure for risk: if it breaks and holds below, you don’t argue — you adapt.

• The 200MA is your macro filter: above it, you’re hunting longs; below it, you’re picky and defensive.
  

  December is where portfolios get “repositioned,” “window-dressed,” and occasionally “panic-sold for tax reasons.”
  
  That creates artificial pushes into support/resistance — which is basically a gift-wrapped setup for traders who wait for confirmation instead of chasing candles like a caffeinated toddler.
  

  
  Nuance to trade smarter right now:
  Expect fake moves early and real moves near the close. Liquidity is thinner. Headlines hit harder.
  
  This is where your No Trade Zone™ saves you more money than your “next great idea.”

  
  

  
  

Dec 17, 2018 delivered a year-end gut punch: stocks dropped hard as December turned into a volatility blender, and it helped cement that month’s reputation as one of the ugliest Decembers in decades.

Why it matters now:
Mid-December weakness often sets up the psychology for the year-end snapback. When fear shows up right before the seasonal tailwind window, the market loves to prank the crowd.

TFT takeaway:
When the market gets dramatic near year-end, don’t get emotional — get mechanical. Trade levels. Trade the turn. Defend the flywheel.

“In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.” — Robert Arnott

Retracements pay the patient. Breakouts punish the impulsive.

Why it matters:
The market rewards diligence and punishes haste.
Same chart. Same data. Different outcome — based on who can wait.

If you keep trading without a system… what exactly are you expecting 2026 to do differently?
And if nothing changes… what does that cost you in opportunities, compounding, and confidence?

If you want 2026 to be the year you stop reacting and start operating… join Time Freedom Trading.

You’ll learn to:

• Trade the retracement instead of chasing breakouts late

• Use the 50MA/200MA like a pro (structure, bias, risk)

• Build a Wealth Operating System that compounds skill into freedom

Because the clock’s not ticking — it’s compounding.
And the market doesn’t pay hope… it pays execution.

Fast-forward 12 months.

It’s December 2026.

The Fed is doing whatever the Fed does.

AI is on its 7th hype cycle.

But here’s the only question that matters:

Are you still hoping rate cuts save your portfolio…
or are you calmly executing a proven trading operating system that funds your lifestyle, your legacy, and your time freedom?

You just read a full breakdown of:

• How the macro winds are shifting.

• Where rotation and reversal trades are setting up.

• How to weaponize something as simple as an engulfing candle for asymmetric entries.

The next move isn’t more information.

It’s installation.

So ask yourself — honestly:

If you keep living  the way you lived in 2025,
will you be any closer to time freedom by next December?

If the answer stings, good. That’s your signal.

Lock in a plan with Time Freedom Trading — the E.D.G.E. system, the $1K Way, the Tactics Newsletter, build a Financial Flywheel — and give your future self a very different December.

Because you’re one trade, one turn, one moment of clarity away from changing your life.

And if this hit you… you already know what you’re supposed to do next.

SEE the Market 
Like a Time Freedom Trader!

Most people stare at charts the way rookies stare at MRI scans —
lots of squiggles… zero understanding… and a whole lot of “uhhh, is this bad?”

Time Freedom Traders don’t look at the market.
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We see:

• Rotation before it rotates

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• Opportunities while everyone else is still doomscrolling

This is the difference between traders and operators.
One guesses.
One reads the market like a playbook.

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You’re just one trade away.

• Think like a Trader and Investor
• Build your own "consistency code"
• Grow into Profits with Providence. 

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