Price doesn’t “discover.” It gets dragged… toward the biggest strike like a drunk uncle to the dessert table. Expect PIN action and last-full-week-of-the-year weirdness.

Futures are barely green… which is Wall Street’s way of saying: “We’re calm… but we’re holding a live grenade.”

Today is quadruple witching—index options, single-stock options, index futures, and futures options all expire. Goldman says this one is the largest expiration on record. Translation: more hedging, more chop, more “why did my candle just teleport?”

Also: Nike face-planted premarket after warning sales slide (holiday season, but make it awkward).

Oracle pops on the TikTok U.S. sale headline, trying to re-inflate the “AI trade” balloon after it squeaked this week.

And yes—Trump signed an executive order directing marijuana be reclassified to Schedule III, a real policy catalyst with real sector implications.

PRE-MARKET STATS

DOW +0.01%
S&P +0.11%
NASDAQ +0.23%
RUSSELL +0.20%
VIX 16.44 (translation: not panic… but not cuddly)
BTC 88,055
Gold 4,361
Oil 56.53
10-Yr 4.150
DXY 98.57

Today’s Market Catalysts

1) “CPI was softer… but maybe too soft.”
NY Fed’s Williams basically said the CPI print had “technical factors” because data collection got weird (shutdown distortions). So the number might be understated by roughly a tenth. The market heard: “Rate cuts later?” and started smiling with one eyebrow raised.

2) Quad Witch = gamma games + closing magnets
Big expirations can turn price into a tug-of-war between dealers hedging and traders gambling. That’s where PIN shows up: price hovering near heavy open-interest strikes into the close.

3) AI trade: shaky, not dead
Oracle headline helps stabilize the “AI infrastructure” mood. Micron strength is the emotional support animal. Semis still aren’t back at highs, but the market is trying to remember why it loved them in the first place.

Key Market Events Today

• 8:30am ET: NY Fed President John Williams TV appearance (markets love a central banker with a microphone).
  
  

• 10:00am ET: Existing Home Sales (rate sensitivity check).
  
  

• Consumer data remains noisy (shutdown hangover). Treat “precision” like it’s optional today.

— Jesse Livermore

Quad Witch Friday / Final Full Week Energy

Strengths — Structure still exists under the chaos
Despite the quad witch circus, the market is not falling apart. Breadth is bruised, not broken. The S&P is still holding above key trend structure, and dips this week have been met with buyers who know exactly where they want inventory. AI didn’t implode—it wobbled, reset, and is now selectively rebidding (Oracle, Micron, Nvidia). That tells you institutions aren’t abandoning risk; they’re rotating and re-pricing it. Strength right now isn’t speed—it’s selectivity. The market still rewards traders who wait for alignment instead of chasing headlines.

Weaknesses — Distorted data + distorted price action
CPI being “technically soft” is a polite way of saying conviction is fuzzy. When macro data reliability drops, options and gamma flows start driving price more than fundamentals. Add quad witching and you get candles that look drunk, not directional. This is where overtrading gets punished fast. Holiday liquidity thins out. Spreads widen. Stops get hunted like it’s open season. The weakness isn’t the trend—it’s execution risk for undisciplined traders.

Opportunities — Pin action is a professional’s playground
Quad witch creates one of the few times where price behavior becomes predictable—not because it trends, but because it sticks. Heavy open interest at key strikes can magnetize price into the close. That’s an opportunity if you’re trading defined risk or harvesting premium, and a landmine if you’re chasing breakouts. Sector-wise, the opportunity is in rotation confirmation: AI infrastructure stabilizing, energy staying bid, crypto equities waking up, and defensives quietly holding ground. The market is whispering, not shouting. Pros listen to whispers.

Threats — Ego, boredom, and false confidence
The biggest threat isn’t volatility—it’s boredom-driven clicks. Traders see green futures, hear “record options expiration,” and think today must deliver fireworks. Sometimes quad witch explodes. Sometimes it pins like paint drying. Misreading that reality leads to forcing trades in low edge conditions. Add headline risk (policy, geopolitics, AI regulation), and you’ve got snap reversals that can erase a week’s work in minutes. The real threat is forgetting that not trading is a position—and often the best one this time of year.

TFT Bottom Line:
This is a market for professionals protecting capital, not tourists chasing dopamine. Strength is patience. Opportunity is precision. Weakness is impatience. Threat is ego. Trade accordingly—or let December teach you the lesson again.

Over the last decade, more than 30% of total daily volume on Quad Witch Fridays prints in the final 15 minutes, and nearly half of that flows through the closing auction—not the regular tape.

Translation?

The real trade doesn’t happen all day.

It happens when the bell is already breathing down your neck.

Why This Quad Witch Is Different

This December Quad Witch is shaping up to be the largest notional expiration in history, landing one week before Christmas—when liquidity thins, emotions rise, and institutional books must rebalance.

That combination creates a rare condition:

• Forced flows
• Mechanical execution
• Price moves without headlines

That’s not chaos.

That’s structure

The Close Imbalance Playbook (Simple. Tactical. Repeatable.)

1. Respect the Clock — Not the Candle

From 3:30–4:00pm ET, price stops telling stories and starts following orders.

This is not TA theater.

This is supply and demand getting finalized.

2. Imbalance > Indicators

Large buy or sell imbalances into the close matter more than RSI, MACD, or your favorite squiggly line.

Why?

Because these orders must be filled. No opinions. No delays.

3. Direction Follows Force

On Quad Witch Fridays:

• Buy imbalance → late squeeze
• Sell imbalance → air pockets into the bell

Especially in:

• Index ETFs (SPY, QQQ, IWM)
• Mega-cap hedges
• High-volume names tied to index weighting
  
  

4. December Rule: Don’t Chase — Anticipate

The edge is positioning before 3:50pm, not reacting at 3:59pm.

Institutions show their hand early.

Retail reacts late.

5. Monday Matters More Than Friday

Here’s the nuance most traders miss:

Quad Witch flows often echo into the following Monday open, especially in December when desks want clean books before holidays.

The close is the signal.

The next session is the payoff

Seasonal Nuance (Pre-Christmas Edge)

December Quad Witch isn’t about speculation.

It’s about inventory control.

Funds aren’t trying to be right.

They’re trying to be done.

That creates:

• Cleaner directional closes
• Faster resolution
• Less chop, more intent

Perfect conditions for traders who wait instead of guess

“Most traders watch candles. Professionals watch clocks.

 Gut Check

If institutions are forced to move billions at the close…

and you’re still trading like it’s a random Friday—

what exactly are you competing against

One trade. One close. One moment of clarity.

That’s how freedom compounds.

Tomorrow’s letter will break down how to spot the imbalance early—and when not to touch it.

Because average traders react.

Time Freedom Traders operate.

Market Memory: Dec 19, 2018 sits inside the brutal Q4 2018 slide—when tightening + fear + liquidity stress turned “normal pullbacks” into a clinic on pain tolerance. The Fed meeting wrapped Dec 19, 2018, and the tone of that period became part of the market’s long memory about policy risk.

The Santa window doesn’t start “early December.” It’s a specific 7-session stretch—and when traders front-run it, you often get chop first… then the move later. In other words: the market loves to make impatient people pay tuition.

TFT Takeaway:
Holiday edges reward precision and patience, not “I’m bored, so I clicked.”

“In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.” — Robert Arnott

Holiday volume is thin. Your discipline can’t be.

December is harvest season emotionally: everyone wants results now. But markets don’t pay you for urgency. They pay you for alignment—catalyst, trend, setup, confirmation.

Why it matters:
Your weekend prep is the plow. Your rules are the furrows. Your patience is the seedbed. If you skip the process, don’t act shocked when the market hands you… nothing.

NEPQ gut-check:
If you keep trading holiday chop like it’s a normal week… what do you think that teaches your nervous system—skill… or sabotage?

Rhetorical Consequence Question (call-out for inaction):
If you refuse to plan this weekend, and you get chopped up next week… are you going to blame the market again… or finally admit you didn’t deserve better results?

If you’re paying for trading education but not structuring it properly…
you might be overpaying twice.

Once to learn.

Again at tax time.

Most traders guess.
The IRS doesn’t reward guessing — it rewards structure.

We broke down exactly when trading education may qualify as a tax deduction, how active traders set it up CPA-clean,
and what documentation actually matters.

👉 Read this before your CPA does:
Trading Education Tax Deduction – CPA-Ready Guide

Rhetorical Consequence Check:

If you’re already investing in your edge… 
why let bad structure erode it?

If you want 2026 to be the year you stop reacting and start operating… join Time Freedom Trading.

You’ll learn to:

• Trade the retracement instead of chasing breakouts late

• Use the 50MA/200MA like a pro (structure, bias, risk)

• Build a Wealth Operating System that compounds skill into freedom

Because the clock’s not ticking — it’s compounding.
And the market doesn’t pay hope… it pays execution.

Fast-forward 12 months.

It’s December 2026.

The Fed is doing whatever the Fed does.

AI is on its 7th hype cycle.

But here’s the only question that matters:

Are you still hoping rate cuts save your portfolio…
or are you calmly executing a proven trading operating system that funds your lifestyle, your legacy, and your time freedom?

You just read a full breakdown of:

• How the macro winds are shifting.

• Where rotation and reversal trades are setting up.

• How to weaponize something as simple as an engulfing candle for asymmetric entries.

The next move isn’t more information.

It’s installation.

So ask yourself — honestly:

If you keep living  the way you lived in 2025,
will you be any closer to time freedom by next December?

If the answer stings, good. That’s your signal.

Lock in a plan with Time Freedom Trading — the E.D.G.E. system, the $1K Way, the Tactics Newsletter, build a Financial Flywheel — and give your future self a very different December.

Because you’re one trade, one turn, one moment of clarity away from changing your life.

And if this hit you… you already know what you’re supposed to do next.

SEE the Market 
Like a Time Freedom Trader!

Most people stare at charts the way rookies stare at MRI scans —
lots of squiggles… zero understanding… and a whole lot of “uhhh, is this bad?”

Time Freedom Traders don’t look at the market.
We see it — in 3D, in real time, with clarity sharp enough to slice through Wall Street noise.

We see:

• Rotation before it rotates

• Catalysts before they explode

• Turns before they trend

• Opportunities while everyone else is still doomscrolling

This is the difference between traders and operators.
One guesses.
One reads the market like a playbook.

And it starts with using the right tools.

If you want to see what we see, the way we see it —
you need charts that don’t lie, lag, or limit your edge.

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Because remember —

You’re just one trade away.

• Think like a Trader and Investor
• Build your own "consistency code"
• Grow into Profits with Providence. 

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