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Jan 20 / The BALD BULL

January 20th, 2026

The WTF Premarket Report isn’t your average Wall Street snooze-fest. It’s your daily tactical briefing—your morning intel—delivered with clarity, edge, and just enough snark to keep you caffeinated before the opening bell. Every edition breaks down the moves that matter: futures flow, Fed fireworks, political curveballs, sector rotations, and premarket movers that can make or break your day. Expect a SWOT analysis to sharpen your edge, a mindset reset to keep you disciplined, and a Bible truth that ties it all back to purpose. This isn’t noise—it’s navigation. Because in this game, you don’t need more headlines, you need clarity, conviction, and the courage to pull the trigger.

Tuesday
JANUARY 20, 2026

Trump Tariffs Tantrum is Back 

Welcome to the 2nd half of January... 
The 1st mood swing of the year. 
The Sell America trade is back on.. 

Post-MLK Day. Back to work. Back to volatility.

Welcome to the 2nd-half-of-January mood swing—where the market stops being cute… and starts being honest.

Futures are cratering because investors are dumping U.S. risk while the headlines scream: “trade, finance, and technology are weapons now.”

Translation: your watchlist is now a geopolitical bingo card.

And yes… VIX > 20. Gold breaking >$4700, 10 YEAR up big, and the SCOTUS may drop the tariff ruling today. 

That’s the market putting on its “don’t touch me” hoodie.


PRE-MARKET STATS

  • DOW: -1.41%
    Blue chips woke up and chose violence. Retirement accounts are pretending not to look.

  • S&P 500: -1.49%
    The “safe middle” just slipped on a banana peel labeled macro risk.

  • NASDAQ: -1.77%
    High-beta tech is on a diet. AI kings are getting trimmed like hedge fund hedges.

  • RUSSELL 2000: -1.83%
    Small caps just found out rates are still real… and they are not amused.

  • VIX: 20.57
    Fear just crossed 20. The market is officially wearing sweatpants and yelling at the TV.

  • BITCOIN: $90,995
    Still expensive. Still dramatic. Still claiming it’s “uncorrelated.” Cute.

  • GOLD: $4,734 / oz
    When grown-ups get nervous, they buy shiny rocks. Flight to safety engaged.

  • SILVER: $95.81 / oz
    Gold’s caffeinated little brother just showed up for the chaos.

  • OIL (WTI): $59.57
    Demand worries beating geopolitics… for now. Energy traders are side-eyeing everything.

  • OIL (Brent): $63.73
    Same movie. International release.

  • 10-YEAR YIELD: 4.290%
    Bonds are screaming, “I’m not dead yet.” Equities hear: multiple compression.

  • DOLLAR (DXY): 98.49
    The dollar is flexing again. Global risk assets just rolled their eyes.

Bottom line:
Not panic.
Not calm.
Just the market re-pricing reality—and charging tuition for anyone trading on vibes.

Big Market Themes Driving Today

  • Tariff tremors are back (Greenland, Europe, retaliation chatter). Markets hate uncertainty like interns hate unpaid overtime.

  • 30-Year yield pops while risk assets wobble. Bond market is basically saying: “I’m not mad… I’m disappointed.”

  • Davos noise is real noise: global leaders talking “dialogue” while holding economic brass knuckles behind their backs.

  • AI job-shock anxiety is rising—IMF framing it like a wave hitting labor markets (translation: employers are sharpening the cost-cutting scissors).



  • “Earnings are an opinion; 
    cash flow is a fact.” 

    | Alfred Rappaport


    “The reason you have a job.... 
    is because your money is unemployed! 

    LETS FIX THAT!


    STOCKS IN THE GREEN (+)

  • D.R. Horton (DHI): +2.9% — beat on EPS + revenue

  • U.S. Bancorp (USB): +1.2% — clean earnings beat

  • Fifth Third (FITB): +1.0% — beat EPS (NII slightly light)


  • STOCKS IN THE RED (–)

  • Micron (MU): -1.5% — Taiwan fab buy headline = “capex reality check”

  • JPMorgan (JPM): -1.6% — Trump lawsuit threat headline risk

  • Lululemon (LULU): -1.8% — proxy fight drama

  • Nvidia (NVDA): ~-2.0% — AI king gets trimmed in risk-off tape

  • J.B. Hunt (JBHT): >-2.0% — soft demand + revenue decline

  • KeyCorp (KEY): -3.0% — “good numbers, bad vibes”

  • 3M (MMM): -4.0% — guidance wobble

  • Fastenal (FAST): >-4.0% — in-line results, out-of-line punishment

  • Strengths

    The market still has structural muscle under the surface: earnings season participation is broad, and a large share of companies are still clearing expectations—the engine isn’t dead, it’s just re-pricing risk. When volatility spikes, liquidity becomes truth serum and weak hands get rinsed. That’s a strength for disciplined traders: clean levels, clear reactions, and real rotation signals.

    Weaknesses

    This tape is emotionally unstable: headlines are driving flows, not fundamentals. When policy talk becomes price_toggle, correlations jump, spreads widen, and “normal pullbacks” turn into trapdoors. Add a VIX pop and you get the classic setup for overreactions—which is great for pros… and brutal for anyone trading vibes.

    Opportunities

    Risk-off mornings create mean-reversion meat on the bone—especially in quality names getting hit for “macro reasons.” Volatility expands ranges, and ranges create premium. This is when TFT traders stalk defined-risk options, IV edge, and rotation plays—after the market tips its hand. Your edge isn’t prediction. It’s patience + levels + execution.

    Threats

    Trade war escalation is the obvious grenade. The sneakier threat is policy unpredictability: one interview clip can move indices faster than an earnings report. The second threat: rates + duration pressure—when long yields jump, equity multiples get squeezed like a lemon at brunch. Third threat: AI labor displacement fear amplifying consumer and CEO caution—confidence shocks can hit spending faster than data releases.


    TRUMP TACTICS — ACTIVE (2nd Term Playbook)

  • Tariff Leverage Diplomacy — escalate tariffs as negotiating weapon (Europe/Greenland pressure).

  • Narrative Dominance — keep markets reactive via headline velocity (interviews, threats, “deal” framing).

  • Institution Pressure Campaign — legal/PR pressure on major institutions (ex: “de-banking” claims vs big banks).

  • Coalition Stress Test — force allies into public positions (NATO/EU unity friction).

  • Prestige Politics — tie geopolitical posture to legacy optics (awards, “peace board” messaging).

  • Retaliation Poker — provoke counter-tariff talk to reset global trade terms on his timeline.


  • The 2nd-Half-of-January Mood Swing

    Second half of January is where positioning meets reality: tax-year money flows fade, optimism gets priced in, and volatility returns like your ex… with “we need to talk” energy.

    Tactical Insight (TFT style):

    • Treat this week like a range-expansion lab.

    • Use No-Trade Zones™ early in the session when headlines are dropping.

    • Let price confirm before you commit capital.

    • Focus on mean reversion and defined risk when VIX is elevated.

    Surprising stat to wire your brain correctly:
    Even the “January Barometer” crowd admits the indicator historically sits around the mid-80% “accuracy” range—but the market is positive a lot of years anyway… meaning people confuse coincidence with edge. Your edge is process, not folklore.

    The market is never wrong; 
    opinions often are.

    | Jesse Livermore

    In prior eras, major political transitions and macro headlines have created knee-jerk moves that looked “obvious”… right before the market rotated and punished certainty. 

    One example: markets have rallied on high-attention political days while traders anchored to narratives instead of price. 

    So far this season, a large share of companies can beat expectations… and the market can still drop if guidance, rates, or geopolitics shift the discount rate. Earnings aren’t the only scoreboard—context is.


    Don’t chase profits — cultivate precision.
    Trade the reaction. Not the headline.

    Volatility doesn’t break traders.
    It exposes them.


    Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position. 
    But certainty is an absurd one.” — Voltaire



    The stock market is one of the only arenas where you can buy a slice of global productivity and let compounding do the heavy lifting—without adding hours to your calendar.

    That’s the cheat code: your money can work while you’re living.


    If you don’t build a wealth engine that compounds… what’s your plan—work forever and call it “stability”?



    “The big money is not in the buying or selling, but in the waiting.” 
    - Jesse Livermore


    “Let all things be done decently 
    and in order.”  

    — 1 Corinthians 14:40

    Why it matters today:
    A VIX spike tempts chaos. Chaos creates impulsive entries. Impulsive entries create “learning experiences” you didn’t ask for. Order is a weapon: rules, risk, and restraint.

    Mindset activation:

    • Faith (Why) grounds you.

    • Stoicism (How) steadies you.

    • System (What) executes you.

    • Providence (Outcome) elevates you.

    If you keep “winging it” during volatility… how many more years are you willing to donate to the market as tuition?


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    And the market doesn’t pay hope… it pays execution.


    Fast-forward 12 months.

    It’s December 2026.

    The Fed is doing whatever the Fed does.

    AI is on its 7th hype cycle.

    But here’s the only question that matters:


    Are you still hoping rate cuts save your portfolio…

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    You just read a full breakdown of:

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    The next move isn’t more information.

    It’s installation.

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    And if this hit you… you already know what you’re supposed to do next.



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    If you’re paying for trading education but not structuring it properly…
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    Empty space, drag to resize

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     | The "Bald Bull

    P.S. If you want to get free,
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                                                                                 - Jesse Livermore



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    THE TIME FREEDOM TRADING SYSTEM empowers Main Street with Wall Street knowledge and tools to compound wealth and earn time freedom through proven trading and investing strategies. Learning how the stock market works from the inside is critical to compounding wealth consistently in any market environment. Time Freedom Trading empowers you to build your own financial flywheel based upon your skills and goals.  Regardless of the technology or market volatility, with TIME FREEDOM TRADING you will have the right mentor and mental coach who will reveal the patterns in human nature that don’t repeat but do rhyme which you can profit from. Whether it’s stocks, options, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), or futures, we empower you with an effective skill set and tools for everyone at every level of experience to earn time freedom.

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