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The W.T.F. Report
January 20th, 2026

Tuesday
JANUARY 20, 2026

Trump Tariffs Tantrum is Back
Welcome to the 2nd half of January...
The 1st mood swing of the year.
The Sell America trade is back on..
Post-MLK Day. Back to work. Back to volatility.
Welcome to the 2nd-half-of-January mood swing—where the market stops being cute… and starts being honest.
Futures are cratering because investors are dumping U.S. risk while the headlines scream: “trade, finance, and technology are weapons now.”
Translation: your watchlist is now a geopolitical bingo card.
And yes… VIX > 20. Gold breaking >$4700, 10 YEAR up big, and the SCOTUS may drop the tariff ruling today.
That’s the market putting on its “don’t touch me” hoodie.
PRE-MARKET STATS
DOW: -1.41%
Blue chips woke up and chose violence. Retirement accounts are pretending not to look.-
S&P 500: -1.49%
The “safe middle” just slipped on a banana peel labeled macro risk. -
NASDAQ: -1.77%
High-beta tech is on a diet. AI kings are getting trimmed like hedge fund hedges. -
RUSSELL 2000: -1.83%
Small caps just found out rates are still real… and they are not amused. -
VIX: 20.57
Fear just crossed 20. The market is officially wearing sweatpants and yelling at the TV. -
BITCOIN: $90,995
Still expensive. Still dramatic. Still claiming it’s “uncorrelated.” Cute. -
GOLD: $4,734 / oz
When grown-ups get nervous, they buy shiny rocks. Flight to safety engaged. -
SILVER: $95.81 / oz
Gold’s caffeinated little brother just showed up for the chaos. -
OIL (WTI): $59.57
Demand worries beating geopolitics… for now. Energy traders are side-eyeing everything. -
OIL (Brent): $63.73
Same movie. International release. -
10-YEAR YIELD: 4.290%
Bonds are screaming, “I’m not dead yet.” Equities hear: multiple compression. -
DOLLAR (DXY): 98.49
The dollar is flexing again. Global risk assets just rolled their eyes.
Bottom line:
Not panic.
Not calm.
Just the market re-pricing reality—and charging tuition for anyone trading on vibes.
Big Market Themes Driving Today
Tariff tremors are back (Greenland, Europe, retaliation chatter). Markets hate uncertainty like interns hate unpaid overtime.
30-Year yield pops while risk assets wobble. Bond market is basically saying: “I’m not mad… I’m disappointed.”
Davos noise is real noise: global leaders talking “dialogue” while holding economic brass knuckles behind their backs.
AI job-shock anxiety is rising—IMF framing it like a wave hitting labor markets (translation: employers are sharpening the cost-cutting scissors).
“Earnings are an opinion;
cash flow is a fact.”
| Alfred Rappaport



“The reason you have a job....
is because your money is unemployed!
LETS FIX THAT!
MARKET HEAT MAP - LIVE
STOCKS IN THE GREEN (+)
D.R. Horton (DHI): +2.9% — beat on EPS + revenue
U.S. Bancorp (USB): +1.2% — clean earnings beat
Fifth Third (FITB): +1.0% — beat EPS (NII slightly light)
STOCKS IN THE RED (–)
Micron (MU): -1.5% — Taiwan fab buy headline = “capex reality check”
JPMorgan (JPM): -1.6% — Trump lawsuit threat headline risk
Lululemon (LULU): -1.8% — proxy fight drama
Nvidia (NVDA): ~-2.0% — AI king gets trimmed in risk-off tape
J.B. Hunt (JBHT): >-2.0% — soft demand + revenue decline
KeyCorp (KEY): -3.0% — “good numbers, bad vibes”
3M (MMM): -4.0% — guidance wobble
Fastenal (FAST): >-4.0% — in-line results, out-of-line punishment

Strengths
The market still has structural muscle under the surface: earnings season participation is broad, and a large share of companies are still clearing expectations—the engine isn’t dead, it’s just re-pricing risk. When volatility spikes, liquidity becomes truth serum and weak hands get rinsed. That’s a strength for disciplined traders: clean levels, clear reactions, and real rotation signals.
Weaknesses
This tape is emotionally unstable: headlines are driving flows, not fundamentals. When policy talk becomes price_toggle, correlations jump, spreads widen, and “normal pullbacks” turn into trapdoors. Add a VIX pop and you get the classic setup for overreactions—which is great for pros… and brutal for anyone trading vibes.
Opportunities
Risk-off mornings create mean-reversion meat on the bone—especially in quality names getting hit for “macro reasons.” Volatility expands ranges, and ranges create premium. This is when TFT traders stalk defined-risk options, IV edge, and rotation plays—after the market tips its hand. Your edge isn’t prediction. It’s patience + levels + execution.
Threats
Trade war escalation is the obvious grenade. The sneakier threat is policy unpredictability: one interview clip can move indices faster than an earnings report. The second threat: rates + duration pressure—when long yields jump, equity multiples get squeezed like a lemon at brunch. Third threat: AI labor displacement fear amplifying consumer and CEO caution—confidence shocks can hit spending faster than data releases.
TRUMP TACTICS — ACTIVE (2nd Term Playbook)
Tariff Leverage Diplomacy — escalate tariffs as negotiating weapon (Europe/Greenland pressure).
Narrative Dominance — keep markets reactive via headline velocity (interviews, threats, “deal” framing).
Institution Pressure Campaign — legal/PR pressure on major institutions (ex: “de-banking” claims vs big banks).
Coalition Stress Test — force allies into public positions (NATO/EU unity friction).
Prestige Politics — tie geopolitical posture to legacy optics (awards, “peace board” messaging).
Retaliation Poker — provoke counter-tariff talk to reset global trade terms on his timeline.

The 2nd-Half-of-January Mood Swing
Second half of January is where positioning meets reality: tax-year money flows fade, optimism gets priced in, and volatility returns like your ex… with “we need to talk” energy.
Tactical Insight (TFT style):
-
Treat this week like a range-expansion lab.
-
Use No-Trade Zones™ early in the session when headlines are dropping.
-
Let price confirm before you commit capital.
-
Focus on mean reversion and defined risk when VIX is elevated.
Surprising stat to wire your brain correctly:
Even the “January Barometer” crowd admits the indicator historically sits around the mid-80% “accuracy” range—but the market is positive a lot of years anyway… meaning people confuse coincidence with edge. Your edge is process, not folklore.
The market is never wrong;
opinions often are.
| Jesse Livermore

One example: markets have rallied on high-attention political days while traders anchored to narratives instead of price.
Don’t chase profits — cultivate precision.
Trade the reaction. Not the headline.
Volatility doesn’t break traders.
It exposes them.
But certainty is an absurd one.” — Voltaire

The stock market is one of the only arenas where you can buy a slice of global productivity and let compounding do the heavy lifting—without adding hours to your calendar.
That’s the cheat code: your money can work while you’re living.
If you don’t build a wealth engine that compounds… what’s your plan—work forever and call it “stability”?
“The big money is not in the buying or selling, but in the waiting.”
- Jesse Livermore

“Let all things be done decently
and in order.”
— 1 Corinthians 14:40
Why it matters today:
A VIX spike tempts chaos. Chaos creates impulsive entries. Impulsive entries create “learning experiences” you didn’t ask for. Order is a weapon: rules, risk, and restraint.
Mindset activation:
-
Faith (Why) grounds you.
-
Stoicism (How) steadies you.
-
System (What) executes you.
-
Providence (Outcome) elevates you.
If you keep “winging it” during volatility… how many more years are you willing to donate to the market as tuition?
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Because the clock’s not ticking — it’s compounding.
And the market doesn’t pay hope… it pays execution.
Fast-forward 12 months.
It’s December 2026.
The Fed is doing whatever the Fed does.
AI is on its 7th hype cycle.
But here’s the only question that matters:
Are you still hoping rate cuts save your portfolio…
or are you calmly executing a proven trading operating system that funds your lifestyle, your legacy, and your time freedom?
You just read a full breakdown of:
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How the macro winds are shifting.
-
Where rotation and reversal trades are setting up.
-
How to weaponize something as simple as an engulfing candle for asymmetric entries.
The next move isn’t more information.
It’s installation.
So ask yourself — honestly:
If you keep living the way you lived in 2025,
will you be any closer to time freedom by next December?
If the answer stings, good. That’s your signal.
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🎁 Step into the new year: take your time back.
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IS TIME FREEDOM TRADING TAX DEDUCTIBLE?
If you’re paying for trading education but not structuring it properly…
you might be overpaying twice.
Once to learn.
Again at tax time.
Most traders guess.
The IRS doesn’t reward guessing — it rewards structure.
We broke down exactly when trading education may qualify as a tax deduction, how active traders set it up CPA-clean,
and what documentation actually matters.
👉 Read this before your CPA does:
Trading Education Tax Deduction – CPA-Ready Guide
If you’re already investing in your edge…
why let bad structure erode it?
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"SEE"
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We see:
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Rotation before it rotates
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Catalysts before they explode
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Turns before they trend
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Opportunities while everyone else is still doom scrolling
This is the difference between traders and operators.
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| The "Bald Bull

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