Welcome to Q4, traders.

The market shut the books last night with the best September since 2013—but woke up to a brand-new quarter with the government officially shut down at midnight. Futures? Shrugging it off. The bid faded hard pre-market but snapped right back, as if the shutdown doesn’t matter (because, let’s be honest, it rarely does).

What is moving the tape:

• 10-year yield is sliding, easing pressure from September’s rate spikes.

• Gold and Bitcoin catching a Q4 bounce, pulling crypto stocks with them.

• ADP payrolls missed—down 32,000, showing hiring momentum is slowing. With BLS data potentially dark during the shutdown, the Fed may be left with only ADP prints as input for October’s policy meeting.

Meanwhile, Trump now has shutdown pen power—he can cut programs with a single signature. That’s a catalyst Wall Street will trade on in real-time, so stay nimble. Congress reconvenes today, but with Democrats flip-flopping, this drama may fade faster than it flared.

The takeaway? Don’t trade the noise. Trade the turn.

Strengths: Q4 seasonality tailwinds are in play, with gold, crypto, and select growth stocks catching a bid. Bond yields easing offers room for equities to breathe. Strong corporate pivots (Nike, Peloton) show brands are adapting into the holiday season.

Weaknesses: Labor data is deteriorating, and the ADP miss highlights momentum slowing into year-end. Bank stocks under pressure signal shutdown risks could ripple through credit conditions. Higher tariffs remain a drag on consumer goods.

Opportunities: Government stakes (Lithium Americas) and M&A (AES) are sparking sector-specific pops—opportunities for tactical trades. Shutdown drama may create rotational volatility in defense, healthcare, and utilities. Crypto stocks are rallying with regulatory clarity whispers.

Threats: Trump’s pen power during the shutdown could spark sudden policy shifts that roil sectors overnight. Lack of BLS data may blind the Fed, increasing the risk of overcorrection in policy. Consumer holiday warnings (Nike) could foreshadow weaker retail demand in Q4.

Shutdowns vs. Stocks

On October 1, 2007, the S&P 500 opened the fourth quarter just 2% shy of its all-time high—only to peak days later before the financial crisis unraveled. Translation: October 1st often looks deceptively strong… but history whispers caution.

Shutdowns are noisy—but historically not deadly to markets:

• The S&P 500 has posted gains in 12 of 21 shutdowns, averaging +0.1% during the shutdown window.

• The 2018–2019 shutdown (35 days) saw the index rip +10.3%.

• The 2013 shutdown (16 days) produced a +3.1% gain.

• A year later, stocks were higher ~86% of the time, averaging mid-teen returns.

Translation: Shutdowns rarely break markets. But with permanent furloughs and delayed data in play, this one carries sharper edges.

Fall is here. 

Q4 is the season of harvest and pruning—a reminder that trading isn’t about chasing every green candle but about cultivating consistency. Prudent labor sows Providence, not just profits. 

Consistency creates abundance, which keeps greed at bay.

As Ecclesiastes reminds us:

Imagine closing out 2025 not with regret, but with Providence in motion. Every quarter is a checkpoint—this one can be your inflection.

Stay sharp. Stay free. Stay trading.

One trade. One turn. One moment of clarity.
That’s all it takes to start compounding toward freedom.
You’re just one trade away.

• Think like a Trader and Investor
• Build your own "consistency code"
• Grow into Profits with Providence. 

Get the "GET FREE" Bundle

1. Learn your real freedom number to earn time freedom trading in the stock market. (it's smaller than you think!)
2. Learn how to see market manipulation by large institutional investors and profit from their movements.
3. Learn how to make money in an up, down, or sideways market. More importantly, you will learn a quantitative approach to know when NOT to trade in the stock market to protect your capital.
4. Develop the proper paper trading skills and processes to prove your trading ability in the stock market before risking a single dollar!
5. Learn the proper trading chart configurations to see the markets in 3D and clearly see market moves before your trade!
6. Understand the difference between retail trading (prey) and professional trading (predator)strategies and how to profit from both mindsets in the stock market.
7. Learn simple trading strategies that only require 5th-grade math. No complex calculations or buzzwords to confuse you.
8. Create simple automated trading tactics with your broker that allow you to place a simple trade on autopilot and minimize your risk while maximizing your gain for a trade.
9. Join a live daily trader community chat that will discuss market moves in real-time to accelerate your learning and close your experience gap faster.
10. Experience the seasonality of the stock market with a veteran trader to learn how to profit in all months and seasons of the year to earn time freedom!