EARNING SEASON IS HERE!

Welcome to “Rocktober,” where the tape trades like a roller coaster and volatility is the ride operator. After Friday’s 3% faceplant, futures are rip-roaring green this Monday morning — proof that weekends are the market’s emotional reset button. The banks and bond markets may be closed for the holiday, but equity traders didn’t get the memo.

Trump’s softer tone on China has the “buy-the-dip” crowd back in full voice, and with bank earnings kicking off this week into what’s shaping up to be a Fed-cutting cycle, the question is simple: Will the bulls finally hold the line?

Meanwhile, the government is still shut down, which means no fresh economic data — just vibes, volume, and volatility. But remember: volatility isn’t chaos… it’s clarity disguised as opportunity.

Bloom Energy (BE): +26% — The fuel cell maker inked a $5 billion partnership with Brookfield Asset Management to power AI data centers. That’s not just a pop — that’s ignition.

Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD): +4% — Rejected Paramount Skydance’s $20-a-share bid. Expect the next move: hostile or higher. Either way, drama sells.

Estee Lauder (EL): +4% — Goldman calls for 30% upside. Beauty bounce incoming.

Shake Shack (SHAK): +2% — Jefferies upgraded from underperform to hold. Translation: “We were wrong. Please forgive us.”

Rocket Lab (RKLB): +6% — Morgan Stanley launched its price target to orbit, citing the Neutron rocket program as the next catalyst.

USA Rare Earth (USARE): +18% — Trump’s retaliation threat over China’s export controls lit up the rare earth space. MP, Energy Fuels, Critical Metals all joined the moonshot.

StubHub (STUB): +5% — Fresh IPO, bullish coverage, and the “experiences over stuff” theme keeps this one in the spotlight.

Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM): +2% — RBC upgraded to “fresh opportunity” status, seeing up to 44% upside. Healthy margins, healthy chart.

Strengths:
Market resilience remains insane. After a 3% dump Friday, buyers came in swinging. Tech dip-buyers are emboldened, banks are ready to report, and the Fed’s softening stance keeps liquidity flowing. The AI trade remains alive and kicking — now branching into energy infrastructure and rare earths.

Weaknesses:
The data blackout is dangerous. With the government still closed, traders are guessing, not gauging. Add to that low liquidity from the bank holiday, and any sudden move could trigger exaggerated swings. Emotional money rules days like this.

Opportunities:
This week’s AI summit double feature (Oracle + Salesforce) could reignite the enterprise adoption narrative. Dip-buyers who trade with discipline and structure — not emotion — can find setups that compound into Rocktober strength. Energy, semis, and rare earths are rotating back into play.

Threats:
Bubble behavior is creeping back. Deals that move stocks without actual money changing hands (OpenAI/Broadcom) are red flags. The “AI partnership” hype cycle could trigger short-term euphoria — then air pockets. Stay sharp, not sentimental.

Shutdowns vs. Stocks

On October 1, 2007, the S&P 500 opened the fourth quarter just 2% shy of its all-time high—only to peak days later before the financial crisis unraveled. Translation: October 1st often looks deceptively strong… but history whispers caution.

Shutdowns are noisy—but historically not deadly to markets:

• The S&P 500 has posted gains in 12 of 21 shutdowns, averaging +0.1% during the shutdown window.

• The 2018–2019 shutdown (35 days) saw the index rip +10.3%.

• The 2013 shutdown (16 days) produced a +3.1% gain.

• A year later, stocks were higher ~86% of the time, averaging mid-teen returns.

Translation: Shutdowns rarely break markets. But with permanent furloughs and delayed data in play, this one carries sharper edges.

In trading terms?

Fear makes you freeze. Power is your plan. Love is your process. And a sound mind? That’s your system — built to withstand the storm.

When you see volatility spiking, don’t panic. Prepare. Tune in, understand rotation, wait for your retracement zone, and nail the power move.

That’s the T.U.R.N. Framework in action — and that’s how freedom traders earn when others hide.

Welcome to mid-month mayhem. 

The banks are coming in hot, the AI hype train is back on the rails, and the volatility meter just flipped from fear to fuel.

So stay tactical. Stay tuned.

And remember — one trade, one turn, one moment of clarity…

You’re just one trade away.

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