The Fed spoke — and the market flinched. The two “sure thing” rate cuts Wall Street was already mentally spending? Yeah, those are now filed under fiction. Futures are cooling after the record-breaking melt-up, with the S&P clinging around 6,900 like a trader holding a losing call, whispering, “It’ll bounce.”

Tech earnings threw gasoline on the confusion: Google soared, Meta imploded, and Microsoft shrugged. Trump, meanwhile, is globe-trotting through Asia doing deals and putting a temporary pause on rare earth metal curbs — because apparently, diplomacy is back in fashion.

Defense names are perking up after fresh noise on nuclear testing, while Congress is still in its own Groundhog Day shutdown — Day 30 and counting. The AI trade has officially gone from “buy every dip” to “wait, what’s the catalyst again?”

Alphabet (GOOG) — Google flexed its ad and cloud muscles, crushing estimates with $3.10 EPS on $102.35B revenue. Cloud and YouTube are printing money, sending the stock up nearly 5%. Apparently, not all tech is trembling before the Fed gods.

Meta (META) — Down nearly 9% despite beating across the board. Investors didn’t love the $16B “Big Beautiful Bill” charge and higher 2026 CapEx. Zuckerberg’s metaverse might need a new map — one that includes an exit.

Microsoft (MSFT) — Solid earnings, Azure up 40%, but the stock dipped 2% because apparently “great” isn’t “Google-great.” Welcome to the AI curve — only exponential growth gets applause.

Amazon (AMZN) — Up after the bell. E-commerce is quietly making a comeback while the AI hype cools. Prime still prints cash.

Apple (AAPL) — Slightly green after hours as the street braces for its report. The trillion-dollar fruit company never dies — it just updates iOS.

MGM Resorts (MGM) — Down 6% post-earnings. Vegas traffic’s slowing, and apparently, AI can’t count cards yet.

Chipotle (CMG) — Down 13%. Three consecutive same-store cuts — maybe burritos need a stimulus check.

ServiceNow (NOW) — Up 3% after lifting its outlook on AI demand. Proof that “AI workflow” still sounds sexier than “Fed confusion.”

Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) — Down 8% on a 75M share offering. Dilution tastes worse than a Monday morning Starbucks miss.

Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) — Tanked 20%. Organic kale didn’t save Q3. Consumers are choosing Costco over conscience.

Ebay (EBAY) — Down 5% on weak guidance. AI may write listings faster, but it can’t make people buy Beanie Babies.

Strengths: Earnings season still shows consumer resilience and AI monetization staying strong under the hood. Google and ServiceNow confirm real AI revenue traction — not just hype.

Weaknesses: Fed confusion reintroduces volatility. The “soft landing” narrative now sounds like turbulence at 30,000 feet. Tech leadership is narrowing; equal-weight indexes are flashing divergence.

Opportunities: Defense sector rotation — nukes, drones, and military AI back on the bid. Energy and industrials could quietly outperform into November. Traders who rotate with reason will catch alpha while the crowd mourns their missed cut.

Threats: Government shutdown, stubborn inflation, and bond yield spikes could reverse the rally faster than a stop-hunt on an overleveraged call buyer. Beware the narrative shift — from euphoria to endurance.

When indexes hit all-time highs but your gut feels heavy — that’s your cue to check the equal-weight charts. Yesterday was the worst breadth day since the 90s. That's tremors underneath. 

1. Compare SPY vs RSP or QQQ vs QQEW. If the equal-weight is lagging, leadership is narrowing. That’s your exit light flashing.
   
   

2. Trim into strength. Scale out in thirds when your positions stretch 2–3 ATR above the 20-day moving average.
   
   

3. Rebalance to breadth. Move some profits from cap-heavy names into equal-weight exposure — it keeps you compounding across the full market.
   
   

4. Fed-Day Rule: Never guess Powell’s tone. Wait for the second move, not the first spike.

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