S&P 500 is a rounding error away from all-time highs.

The Fed meets this week.

Traders are basically asking: “Are we about to get a soft landing… 
or a champagne-fueled blow-off top?”

This week is the final lap of 2025 rate policy:

Futures green.

VIX sleepy.

Tech perky.

Fed odds screaming “CUT ME, BABY.”

You’re not in a crash movie.

You’re in a liquidity sequel.

The question is:
Are you playing the game… or just watching the trailer?

Wall Street walked in this morning like it already knew the script: futures green, VIX asleep, and traders pre-gaming Wednesday’s Fed decision like it’s New Year’s Eve for interest rates. 

But Hollywood just stole the spotlight—Paramount Skydance dropped a hostile $30-per-share all-cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, going straight to shareholders after losing the bidding war to Netflix for the Warner Bros. film studio and HBO Max. Netflix gets the content kingdom, but not the TV networks; Paramount insists WBD is worth more whole than sliced, and they’re ready to prove it with a takeover attempt bold enough to make Gordon Gekko blush. 

Add that to an S&P 500 flirting with all-time highs, softer PCE fueling cut-hopes, and a Fed week loaded with catalysts—and you’ve got a Monday that feels less like a market open and more like a merger-mania matinee with rate-cut anticipation sprinkled on top.

— Jesse Livermore

• S&P 500 closed Friday just ~0.7% shy of its intraday record and about a quarter percent off its closing high.

• Major indices logged their second straight positive week:

  • Dow: +0.5%

  • Nasdaq: +0.9%

  • S&P 500: +0.3%
    
    

Tailwind?

• The delayed September core PCE report came in lighter than expected on a 12-month basis.

• Translation: inflation cooled just enough to let Wall Street start pricing in a “please cut the rates” Christmas special.
  
  

Now:

• Fed funds futures say ~90% chance of a rate cut on Wednesday.

• Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent expects ~3% real GDP growth despite the shutdown drama.

This is what “bullish drift into Fed” looks like.
It’s not hype. It’s math + narrative.

• DOW: +0.05%

• S&P 500: +0.16%

• NASDAQ: +0.34%

• RUSSELL 2000: +0.60%
  
  

Risk-on has its gym shoes on.

• VIX: 16.28 → Fear is on PTO.

• BITCOIN: 91,985 → Still loud, still liquid.

• GOLD: 4,235 → Quiet flex from the “insurance” trade.

• OIL: 59.53 → Cheap gas, expensive stocks.

• 10YR: 4.154% → Rates drifting lower into Fed week.

• DOLLAR: 99.03 → Slightly soft = tailwind for risk assets.

This week is all about policy + positioning:

• Monday:

  • New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations
    → Watch inflation expectations – the Fed reads it, so should you.
    
    

• Tuesday:

  • JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover) for October
    → Softening jobs = softer Fed. Strong jobs = “not so fast, cowboy.”
    
    

• Wednesday (Main Event):

  • Fed decision + Press Conference

  • Watch the DOT PLOT – that’s your 2026 headlights.

  • Oracle (ORCL) & Adobe (ADBE) earnings after the bell.
    
    

• Thursday:

  • Lululemon (LULU), Costco (COST), Broadcom (AVGO) earnings after the bell.
    → Consumer strength + AI chip demand = rotation clues.
    
    

This is not a “set it and forget it” week.
This is a catalyst week.
You either trade the turn… or get turned into content for someone else’s PnL.

1. Confluent (CFLT) – +27% pre-market (surged closer to 29% in some prints)
IBM in advanced talks for an $11B acquisition.

• This is what happens when your data pipes become too strategic to ignore.

• Lesson: When big tech needs plumbing, the plumbers get rich.

2. Carvana (CVNA) – +9%
Joining the S&P 500 on Dec. 22.

• From bankruptcy memes… to benchmark money flows.

• Index inclusion = forced buying from funds that used to ignore you.

3. CRH (CRH) – +7%
Also joining the S&P 500.

• Concrete, aggregates, infrastructure.

• When money rotates into “things that actually exist,” names like this get love.

4. Lumentum Holdings (LITE) – +4%
Extended strategic agreement with IQE.

• Optics + photonics = structural picks-and-shovels for data & AI.

5. Broadcom (AVGO) – ~+2–3%
Reportedly in talks with Microsoft to design custom chips, potentially taking business from Marvell.

• You don’t need billboards when your clients are literally hyperscalers.

6. Five Below (FIVE) – +2%+
Upgraded to Buy from Hold by Truist.

• Analyst note: “Sustainable comps and upward earnings potential.”

• Translation: The Street realized kids + candy + inflation = pricing power.

7. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) – Slightly green
Todd Combs leaving to join JPM as head of Security & Resiliency Initiative.

• Structure shifts before Buffett steps aside.

• The market shrugged. Berkshire’s machine keeps compounding.

1. Marvell Technology (MRVL) – ≈ -6%
Losing potential custom chip business to Broadcom.

• In AI land, you’re either gaining wallet share or feeding it.
  
  

2. CoreWeave (CRWV) – ≈ -6%
Announced a $2B convertible debt offering.

• Translate “convertible debt” as: “We’re raising big money while the story’s still hot.”

• Good for growth. Dilutive for existing holders. The market can do that math.
  
  

These aren’t collapses.

They’re re-pricings of who gets the AI tab and who gets the check.

Strengths:
The tape has momentum, breadth isn’t dead, and the major indices are coming off back-to-back winning weeks with the S&P within spitting distance of all-time highs. Softer core PCE, a Fed likely to cut, and a 10-year yield drifting around 4.15% create a supportive backdrop for both growth and cyclicals. Tech leadership plus small-cap participation (Russell +0.60% pre-market) screams risk-on rotation, not a narrow melt-up.

Weaknesses:
The main weakness is complacency. VIX at 16-handle shows nobody’s really hedged for a surprise hawkish Fed or shock headline. We’re also extended on many daily charts after a big two-week run, which means any disappointment out of the Fed, Oracle, Adobe, or the big consumer/AI names later this week can trigger fast air-pocket pullbacks. Chasing breakouts at all-time-high resistance without a plan is how accounts get “December deleted.”

Opportunities:
This is a textbook catalyst week for Time Freedom Traders. The Fed decision, dot plot, key earnings (ORCL, ADBE, LULU, COST, AVGO), and jobs data all create windows to trade the turn: post-Fed reversals, post-earnings volatility compression/expansion, and rotation into sectors favored by the new rate path. The combination of AI M&A (IBM–CFLT), custom chips (AVGO/MSFT), and index rebalancing (CVNA, CRH) offers tactical setups for both intraday and multi-day swing plays.

Threats:
The biggest threat? A “sell the news” moment at or near all-time highs. If the Fed hints at fewer 2026 cuts than futures are pricing, or Powell pushes back on easing financial conditions, we could see sharp downside, especially in crowded tech names. Add in geopolitical headline risk, political noise, and year-end positioning from big funds, and you’re trading in a zone where liquidity can vanish quickly. No plan = you are the liquidity.

Cyber Monday isn’t just about discount TVs and overpriced air fryers.

Historically, it’s often coincided with holiday optimism flows:

• In multiple post-GFC years, late November through December has shown a bullish bias, with the S&P 500 positive the majority of the time during this window as retail sales, holiday spending, and year-end performance chasing kick in.
  
  

• One standout Cyber Monday era stat: in several years of the 2010s, the S&P 500 and key retail ETFs (like XRT) logged multi-day rallies around Cyber Monday, as digital commerce data surprised to the upside and “the death of the consumer” was once again… greatly exaggerated.
  
  

TFT Takeaway:
Market Memory says: never underestimate the power of retail 
spending + portfolio window dressing.

When the consumer taps “Add to Cart,” funds tap “Add Exposure.”

Here’s one for your tactical arsenal:

The First (2) Two Weeks of December Are Sneaky Bullish.

Everyone talks about the Santa Claus Rally…
But the move BEFORE Santa?

That’s the real present.

Across 50+ years of market data:

🎄 The S&P 500 has historically 
gained ~1.7% on average from Dec 1–15.

🎄 The win rate is over 70%.

🎄 Small caps (Russell 2000) show even stronger outperformance — often double the S&P during this window.

Why?

• Fund managers shove cash into winners before bonuses

• Retail slows down (less dumb money = cleaner trends)

• Algorithms feast on thin liquidity and push leaders higher

• Rotation into the next year’s outperformers begins quietly

Translation :
“The market starts delivering gifts early 
— but only to traders who are awake.”

Rate cuts, record highs, headlines, deals…
All noise if your mindset is misaligned.

You’re not just trying to “make a good trade.”
You’re building a life where time obeys you, not your boss’s calendar.

Why this matters to Time Freedom Trading:

• You don’t get infinite Mondays.

• Wisdom is not just knowing markets… it’s knowing what your days are worth.

• When you “number your days,” you stop treating life like a rehearsal and start treating today’s decisions—skills, systems, stewardship—as seeds for future freedom.
  
  

Mindset Shift:

Don’t just track your PnL.
Track how much of your life you are buying back with every smart decision.

If you’re tired of:

• Reacting to headlines instead of executing a system…

• Watching the market drift to new highs while your money stays unemployed…

• Wondering if AI, rate cuts, and volatility will save you instead of serve you…

Then it’s time to plug into a Wealth Operating System, not another random “strategy of the week.”

Time Freedom Trading helps you:

• See the market in 3D

• Build your Financial Flywheel

• Trade with T.U.R.N. + E.D.G.E. frameworks

• Stack Mindset + Skillset + Toolset into real assets
  
  

👉 Join Time Freedom Trading today and design 2026 as the year you stop trading time for money and start compounding time freedom on purpose.

Can you imagine stepping into next December knowing you have:

• A system,

• A playbook,

• And a path to earn your way out of the wage cage?
  
  

If that feels even a little bit inevitable…
That’s your cue.

SEE the Market 
Like a Time Freedom Trader!

Most people stare at charts the way rookies stare at MRI scans —
lots of squiggles… zero understanding… and a whole lot of “uhhh, is this bad?”

Time Freedom Traders don’t look at the market.
We see it — in 3D, in real time, with clarity sharp enough to slice through Wall Street noise.

We see:

• Rotation before it rotates

• Catalysts before they explode

• Turns before they trend

• Opportunities while everyone else is still doomscrolling

This is the difference between traders and operators.
One guesses.
One reads the market like a playbook.

And it starts with using the right tools.

If you want to see what we see, the way we see it —
you need charts that don’t lie, lag, or limit your edge.

That means TradingView.

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👉 Sign up for TradingView today and start seeing the market like a Time Freedom Trader.

Your clarity starts the moment your charts go HD.

Because remember —

You’re just one trade away.

• Think like a Trader and Investor
• Build your own "consistency code"
• Grow into Profits with Providence. 

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