Welcome to the 2nd-half-of-January mood swing… where the market wakes up, checks Davos, checks Trump, checks the VIX… and still can’t decide if it’s a genius or a toddler.

Yesterday the market rallied ~1.35% off Davos confidence fumes.
Because nothing says “bullish” like CEOs telling you everything is fine while their CFO is quietly chewing Tums.

Today’s headline cocktail:

• Davos CEO comments leading the news cycle

• TACO Trade: “Trump Always Chickens Out” = markets buy the bounce on every U-turn

• Greenland framework talk = “buy the region without military action” vibes

• Cuba regime-change narrative after the Venezuela playbook

• VIX floating back toward 15 like fear took a spa day

• Delayed PCE at 10:00am = macro jump-scare scheduled

• INTC at a 4-year high into earnings while SMH keeps strutting like it owns the runway

• DOW: +0.46%

• S&P: +0.64%

• NASDAQ: +0.95%

• RUSSELL: +0.63%

• VIX: 15.94

• BITCOIN: $89,655

• GOLD: $4,815/oz (more upside)

• SILVER: $93.48/oz

• WTI: $59.67

• BRENT: $63.70

• 10Y: 4.260

• DOLLAR (DXY): 98.63
  
  

Read the room: Risk is ON… but the market’s still watching macro like it’s a criminal trial.

| Alfred Rappaport

Strengths

Risk appetite is still alive, and it’s showing up in the places that matter: semis, AI narratives, and small caps holding their own. The VIX floating near 15 tells you fear isn’t in control right now. That creates a cleaner environment for planned entries, sector rotation, and disciplined “trade-the-turn” execution — especially during earnings season when real numbers can overpower hot takes.

Weaknesses

This market is hypersensitive to headlines and macro timing. You can be “right” and still get chopped up if you enter before confirmation. The delayed PCE drop at 10:00am is a volatility trap for impatient traders. Add political theater from Davos + Washington, and you get a tape that can whip around fast enough to humble anyone trading on vibes instead of structure.

Opportunities

Earnings season is the best “truth filter” of the year. Stocks that are already extended into prints (like INTC) create asymmetric opportunity — not because you “predict” results, but because you trade reaction and positioning. The opportunity this week is to hunt A+ setups after volatility spikes, then take mean reversion and trend-continuation trades when the dust settles.

Threats

The threat isn’t just bad data — it’s the market repricing expectations in seconds. Macro prints + political U-turns create sudden liquidity vacuums, and those are where stops get hunted and accounts get bruised. Geopolitical narratives (Cuba/Venezuela framing) also add tail-risk uncertainty. In short: if you’re sloppy, this week will invoice you.

Not a prediction. Just the visible operating pattern hitting markets right now.)

1. Tariff Threat Cycling: float tariffs → force reaction → pivot → let markets rip

2. “Framework Diplomacy” Plays: Greenland concept-of-a-deal messaging to shift leverage without overt conflict

3. Regional Pressure Campaign Template: Venezuela outcome used as a precedent signal

4. Cuba Deal-Hunting Strategy: searching for insiders and “cut-a-deal” regime narrative

5. Populist Economic Signaling: homeowner depreciation idea floated to shape sentiment and headlines

6. Consumer Credit Theater: pushing the 10% card cap narrative to pressure banks and message discipline

7. Stagecraft as Policy Delivery: Davos microphones used as market-moving instruments

Davos is where billionaires politely compliment each other while quietly recalibrating risk.

TFT Tactical Insight:
When public confidence rises but price action is selective, you don’t chase.

You retracement-hunt.

• Let the market show you where institutions are defending (higher lows, tight bases, volume support)

• Enter on confirmation, not optimism

• Use earnings + macro spikes to catch clean turns, not emotional breakouts
  
  

The second half of January is historically one of the most common windows for a “reality check” pullback right after early-year optimism — especially when earnings and macro prints collide.

Not a guarantee. Just a repeating behavior pattern worth respecting.

On Jan 22, 1993, SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) launched — and the modern era of flow-driven markets got a turbocharger.

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Macro at 10:00am. Earnings after the bell. Headlines everywhere.

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AI is on its 7th hype cycle.

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