Jobs report hangover

• Payrolls +130K vs 55K expected and unemployment 4.3% = growth is alive… but it also whispers:
  “Rate cuts might not show up wearing a cape.”

The AI Debt Bill

• The “AI arms race” is migrating from hype to balance sheets.

• Big tech is tapping debt markets to fund data centers at scale, while strategists warn about late-cycle froth.

Rate-cut expectations: don’t marry the dots

• If the data stays firm, “two cuts” can turn into “maybe later.”

• Translation: duration and high-multiple dreams get a little more fragile.

Ackman buys META

• Ackman adding META is a loud signal: “I think the market’s over-punishing capex fear.”

• META’s capex guidance is still a heavyweight, but the bull case is: spending builds moats, not mistakes.

WYNN • ABNB • AMAT • RIVN • DKNG • ROKU • PINS • ANET • TWLO • COIN

If you’re trading earnings without a plan:
That’s not “bold.” That’s “donation with extra steps.”

| Alfred Rappaport

Strengths: The tape still has selective strength—data centers, memory, and “AI infrastructure” are attracting real capital, not just likes. Russell relative strength hints that risk appetite isn’t dead; it’s just picky. When leadership narrows, professionals thrive because clarity improves.

Weaknesses: The index can’t reclaim key levels (SPX under 7K), and margin sensitivity is back—Cisco is the poster child: revenue’s fine, costs are the killer. That’s late-cycle behavior: not “demand collapses,” but “inputs bite.”

Opportunities: Thursday counter-trend day creates opportunity for mean-reversion trades—especially in overextended losers and headline-driven spikes. The “AI debt bill” also creates a rotation playground: winners in infrastructure, pressure on software/fees where AI disintermediates (hello CRE services).

Threats: Geopolitics can gap oil and rates in minutes, not days. And the AI capex binge is flirting with “bubble optics”—when markets start debating “AI froth,” valuation compression can happen even while fundamentals look fine.

Cisco’s margin hit wasn’t random—it was a signal flare: memory is getting pricier because AI demand is pulling supply into data centers. That’s the rotation: AI infrastructure up, margin-sensitive hardware down, memory producers up.

Surprising stat: Cisco explicitly flagged gross margin pressure tied to rising memory costs—a “boring” line item that can become an entire trade theme.

“The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” — Warren Buffett

If you keep trading because you’re bored, what does that say about your process?  And what’s that boredom costing you in sloppy entries?

• Let’s say the underlying stock moves +12% in 7–10 trading days (very normal in high beta leaders during momentum phases).
  
  

• A near-the-money call in that window can move ~2.5x to 4x the stock’s % move depending on delta + volatility expansion.
  
  

Conservative math:

• Stock: +12%

• Option: +35% (not even a moonshot)

• $10,000 → $13,500 in ~2 weeks
  
  

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Fast-forward 12 months.

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AI is on its 7th hype cycle.

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