We’re opening the short holiday week with a meh attempt… while futures whisper, “lol… no.” Core CPI came in in-line last week, which is basically the Fed saying: “Cute. Bring me more data.” 

Meanwhile the 10-Year is still at a ~4.0% (low of the year)—rates are cooling, but tech is still acting like it touched a hot stove and now refuses to cook ever again. 

Amazon is down 10 days in a row!

Nasdaq down FIVE(5) straight weeks! 

And yes… Happy Chinese New Year — Year of the Fire Horse. 

Translation: 
Speed, heat, impulse… and a high probability that someone overtrades before lunch.

Here’s the “don’t-get-surprised” list:

• Tuesday: Palo Alto Networks earnings (after the bell)

• Wednesday: DoorDash + Figma earnings (after the bell) + Fed minutes

• Thursday: Walmart + Wayfair + Etsy (before the bell) + Jobless claims

• Friday: GDP + Core PCE (the Fed’s favorite inflation “love language”)
  
  

TFT consequence question (call-out for inaction):
If you don’t plan around catalysts… are you trading the market… or letting the market trade you?

1) Tech slide continues

Down ~3% YTD and still leaking confidence. Software names are getting priced like AI just stole their lunch money and their job badge.

TFT take: When the generals (mega-cap tech) wobble, you stop “hoping” and start rotating.

2) Iran negotiations + Strait of Hormuz drama = oil risk premium

War games + partial chokepoint closure headlines = energy stays bid, risk stays twitchy.

TFT take: Headline risk = wider ranges + faster fakeouts. Trade smaller. Trade cleaner. Or don’t trade.

3) AI agents arms race 
(Alibaba Qwen3.5 + “agents on the front lines”)

AI’s shifting from “chat” to “do.” Agents don’t talk… they execute. That’s bullish for select infrastructure, compute, security… and bearish for any business model built on “humans doing repetitive stuff.”

TFT take: This is rotation fuel. Winners won’t be the loudest. They’ll be the ones quietly selling picks and shovels.

| Alfred Rappaport

Strengths: Disinflation is behaving, yields are calmer, and the 10-year near yearly lows gives the broader market a structural cushion. Even with tech weakness, there’s still rotation leadership in other pockets, which is exactly what a healthy market does when one engine sputters.

Weaknesses: Tech is the weight vest. Five straight negative weeks in the Nasdaq vibe is the kind of grind that breaks weak hands and produces messy intraday traps. Add elevated VIX and you get a market that punishes “button-mashing” and rewards patience.

Opportunities: AI agents are the new narrative gasoline—security, infrastructure, data plumbing, and select semi exposure can benefit as the hype moves from “chat” to “workflow.” Also: holiday weeks often compress liquidity… which means clean levels can produce outsized moves when catalysts hit.

Threats: Geopolitics (Hormuz headlines) can spike energy and distort inflation expectations fast. Plus, “AI disruption fear” is spreading across industries—translation: multiple sectors can de-rate without warning when the story flips from growth to obsolescence.

Key principle: In thin liquidity + headline weeks, your edge is selective aggression.

Mental model: T.U.R.N. — Tune In → Understand Rotation → Retracement Zone → Nail the Power Zone.

Practical tactic for Feb 17–end of month:

• Trade rotation, not opinions. If tech bleeds, look for relative strength in energy, defense, select industrials, and security.

• Use “event windows” like a sniper, not a machine gun. Fed minutes, GDP, Core PCE = planned volatility.

• Options approach: favor defined-risk structures (debit spreads / calendars) when VIX is elevated so you’re not donating premium to the market.
  
  

Surprising stat (seasonality edge):
Research on the Lunar New Year effect has found higher average returns around the Lunar New Year window, including outperformance in the days leading into it (and strong early-new-year trading days in some samples). Translation: sentiment + flows can matter more than fundamentals for short bursts.

On February 17, 2009, the U.S. signed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA)—a major stimulus moment during the financial crisis era. Markets didn’t instantly levitate… but policy + liquidity became the storyline that shaped the next cycle.

Why it matters today: When policy steps in, markets can pivot from “fear pricing” to “liquidity pricing” fast. Your job is to recognize the regime shift early—not argue with it.

Surprising stat: Stimulus moments often change correlation structure—suddenly everything trades off rates/liquidity instead of earnings. That’s when sector rotation pays rent.

“Liquidity lies louder than logic.”

A stock can move 20–50% in months. Options can turn that into multi-X outcomes with defined risk.

Historical example (GameStop squeeze era):
GameStop’s price famously rocketed (e.g., from roughly $20 to $347 in January 2021).

$10,000 option-sized illustration (multi-day):

• Assume you deployed $10,000 into call options during the run (defined risk = premium paid).

• When a stock moves several hundred percent, in-the-money call values can expand dramatically because intrinsic value explodes as price runs away from the strike.

• Even a conservative structure that captured a fraction of that move could turn $10,000 into multiples quickly—while the max loss stays capped at your premium.
  
  

The point: Stocks compound wealth. Options compress time.
And time compression is how professionals buy freedom.

If you never learn defined-risk leverage… how many years are you volunteering to stay in the “time-for-money” economy?

If you want 2026 to be the year you stop “watching markets” and start operating in them:

• Join Time Freedom Trading and build your Wealth Operating System

• Like / Subscribe / Share (yes, you’re allowed to support your future self)

• Watch the YouTube channel for the full breakdown + live tactics

• DM me: Presidents’ Day Sale is ending soon — and the market is not giving extensions
  
  

Imagine it’s March… and you’re not guessing anymore. You’re rotating on purpose. Executing with a checklist. Stacking small edges into a flywheel that funds your life.

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Because the clock’s not ticking — it’s compounding.
And the market doesn’t pay hope… it pays execution.

Fast-forward 12 months.

It’s December 2026.

The Fed is doing whatever the Fed does.

AI is on its 7th hype cycle.

But here’s the only question that matters:

Are you still hoping rate cuts save your portfolio…
or are you calmly executing a proven trading operating system that funds your lifestyle, your legacy, and your time freedom?

You just read a full breakdown of:

• How the macro winds are shifting.

• Where rotation and reversal trades are setting up.

• How to weaponize something as simple as an engulfing candle for asymmetric entries.

The next move isn’t more information.

It’s installation.

So ask yourself — honestly:

If you keep living  the way you lived in 2025,
will you be any closer to time freedom by next December?

If the answer stings, good. That’s your signal.

Lock in a plan with Time Freedom Trading — the E.D.G.E. system, the $1K Way, the Tactics Newsletter, build a Financial Flywheel — and give your future self a very different December.

Because you’re one trade, one turn, one moment of clarity away from changing your life.

And if this hit you… you already know what you’re supposed to do next.

If you’re paying for trading education but not structuring it properly…
you might be overpaying twice.

Once to learn.

Again at tax time.

Most traders guess.
The IRS doesn’t reward guessing — it rewards structure.

We broke down exactly when trading education may qualify as a tax deduction, how active traders set it up CPA-clean,
and what documentation actually matters.

👉 Read this before your CPA does:

Trading Education Tax Deduction – CPA-Ready Guide

If you’re already investing in your edge… 
why let bad structure erode it?

SEE the Market 
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Most people stare at charts the way rookies stare at MRI scans —
lots of squiggles… zero understanding… and a whole lot of “uhhh, is this bad?”

Time Freedom Traders don’t look at the market.
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We see:

• Rotation before it rotates

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• Opportunities while everyone else is still doom scrolling

This is the difference between traders and operators.
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