The economy looks fine on paper… 
while the headlines look like a Michael Bay trailer.

1) Oil rips + war premium returns

Oil jumps over 2% after VP Vance says Iran ignored key U.S. demands and military strikes are “on the table.”
Translation: the market just priced in “diplomacy… with a side of aircraft carriers.”

Two carriers in the region (Lincoln there, Ford en route) is not a vibe.
That’s a liquidity tax on risk assets and a confidence boost for energy… until it becomes a growth choke collar.

TFT read:

• If crude keeps climbing, inflation expectations get cute again.

• And when inflation gets cute… the bond market gets violent.
  
  

2) Welcome to the “Boomcession”

GDP says “boom.”
Sentiment says “bro, I’m tired.”

That gap matters because markets don’t trade data… they trade how people behave when prices rise and paychecks don’t.

And the “Break is Over” headline is the dagger: companies are jacking prices again because tariffs + labor + health insurance costs are back in the ring.

TFT read:

• Sticky prices = sticky rates.

• Sticky rates = tech valuation compression.

• Compression = the market stops rewarding “vision” and starts rewarding cash flow, pricing power, and balance sheets.
  
  

3) Amazon finally stopped bleeding… but the crime scene remains

AMZN breaks a 9-day losing streak, but the bigger story is this:
Wall Street saw $200B CAPEX and said, “Cool… so when do shareholders get paid?”

TFT read:

• CAPEX is bullish for the AI supply chain

• CAPEX is bearish for near-term margins

• And when the market is nervous, it punishes spending like it’s a bad habit.
  
  

4) 13F season: follow the whales, not the wifi

Big money is positioning while retail is arguing on social media like it’s a job.

• Berkshire trims Apple (last Buffett quarter)

• Berkshire adds NYT

• Ackman + Klarman buying AMZN

• Cooperman loads RKT
  
  

TFT read:
13F’s don’t tell you today’s trade.
They tell you where conviction is building so you can stalk entries like a professional… not chase candles like a tourist.

5) AI CAPEX boom is still booming

Meta expands its Nvidia partnership.
Render raises big money at a $1.5B valuation with explosive growth.

TFT read:
AI isn’t slowing. It’s rotating.
The winners won’t just be the “models.”
They’ll be the picks, shovels, networks, power, cooling, and data center plumbing.

6) Mortgage rates dip = refi pops

30-year fixed around 6.17%, refi demand spikes hard.

TFT read:
That’s a relief valve… not a renaissance.
Lower rates help housing breathe, but if prices keep rising, consumers still feel like they’re running uphill in dress shoes.

No fluff. Here’s what matters because it moves volatility:

• Geopolitics: Iran headlines can whip crude, defense, and broad risk sentiment intraday.

• Rates sensitivity: Watch the 10-Year behavior as the “truth serum” for equities.

• AI/Software narrative: SaaS gets punished every time someone says “AI replaces 50%.”

• 13F digestion: Late reactions can create second-day follow-through moves.

Enterprise software could get replaced by AI (Mistral CEO)

Half of enterprise software being replaced is the corporate version of:
“Your job is safe… until it isn’t.”

Market punchline: SaaS valuation is a confidence business model.
If customers can swap tools faster, multiples shrink faster

Nvidia dumps Arm

Arm up anyway because the market loves a plot twist.

TFT read:
Nvidia reducing exposure doesn’t mean “Arm is dead.”
It means Nvidia is optimizing its chessboard.
And chess players don’t explain moves to checkers players

Palo Alto beats… stock still gets body-slammed

Guidance cut = market tantrum.

TFT read:
Cybersecurity is not “SaaS fluff.”
It’s digital body armor.
But when the tape is hostile, the market sells everything that doesn’t have a pulse and a dividend

Other notable tape-twitchers

• Workday downgrade + CEO shuffle = uncertainty premium

• Elliott in Norwegian Cruise Line = “we’re here to fix your margin problems… aggressively”

• Cadence pops = semi design tools still paid like royalty

• Salesforce PT cuts = “Agent” hype still needs receipts

• Western Digital trimming Sandisk stake = debt cleanup while memory trade keeps running hot

| Alfred Rappaport

Strengths

The market still has two engines running: AI capex and selective earnings resilience. Nvidia-led infrastructure demand keeps the “buildout” narrative alive, while pockets like semi tools (CDNS) and quality cyclicals can catch bids when they deliver clean guidance. Liquidity isn’t euphoric, but it’s not dead — and that means disciplined traders can still extract opportunity from rotation rather than chasing broad beta.

Weaknesses

Consumers feel squeezed, and pricing power headlines confirm it. That “boomcession” psychology is toxic because it creates spending hesitation while input costs rise. Meanwhile, tech multiples remain vulnerable as long as the 10-year hangs near the danger zone. The market is also punishing any hint of margin dilution (hello, mega CAPEX), which makes leadership more narrow and price action more violent.

Opportunities

Volatility under 20 is a gift if you know how to buy asymmetry. AI buildout expands the trade beyond “magnificent” names into second-order winners: networking, data center infrastructure, power, semi tools, and select memory/storage. 13F positioning also provides a treasure map — not for copying, but for tracking where conviction is building so you can execute retracement entries with structure.

Threats

Geopolitics is the spark in the gasoline room. Iran headlines can reprice oil fast, and oil can reprice inflation expectations faster than the Fed can say “data dependent.” Add tariff-driven price pressure and you’ve got a setup where rates stay higher longer, risk assets get repriced, and the market turns into a headline-whipsaw machine. Also: AI disruption fears continue to hammer SaaS sentiment, which can spread like a cold through growth.

Second half of February is where traders get chopped because they confuse “movement” with “opportunity.”

Your edge:
Trade retracements into power zones around catalysts — not random breakouts.

• Expect headline spikes (Iran/oil) to create knee-jerk overreactions.
  
  

• Use the volatility to stalk:

  • Energy strength on pullbacks (if crude holds)

  • AI infrastructure on retraces (NVDA ecosystem)

  • Software only when it shows proof (not promises)
    
    

Surprising stat (tactical punch):
In many years, a large share of February’s net move happens in just a handful of sessions — which means overtrading the “in-between days” is how accounts quietly die. Your job is not to trade more. It’s to trade the moments that matter.

“The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘This time it’s different.’” — Sir John Templeton

Are you trading setups… or are you trading your feelings about the news?

February 18 has a nasty habit of being “calm before the cliff.”

A famous modern example: February 18, 2020 sat right at the doorstep of the COVID waterfall — a reminder that markets can look “fine” until they’re not.

Surprising statistic:
That 2020 drop was one of the fastest “from record highs to panic lows” cycles in modern history — proof that speed kills… and that preparedness pays.

TFT lesson:
You don’t predict black swans.
You build a system that survives them — and profits when the crowd panics.

Here’s why the stock market is the only legal casino where you can buy time with skill.

Historical-style example (crash leverage):

• Underlying: SPY during the Feb–Mar 2020 selloff

• Move: SPY fell roughly 34% peak-to-trough

• Trade size: $10,000 in puts (multi-day swing)

Example mechanics:

• You buy 10 put contracts at $10.00 each = $10,000

• Each contract controls 100 shares → 1,000 shares controlled

• When SPY collapses, those puts can expand from $10 → $80+ (intrinsic + volatility surge)

Result:

• $10,000 → ~$80,000

• That’s +700% on a move the stock itself did at -34%

Why it matters:
Leverage turns precision into compounding fuel — if you respect risk and trade a plan instead of a vibe.

If you don’t learn how to use leverage with discipline… what’s your plan the next time the market drops 3% in a week and your “diversified portfolio” turns into a diversified regret?

If you want 2026 to be the year you stop “watching markets” and start operating in them:

• Join Time Freedom Trading and build your Wealth Operating System

• Like / Subscribe / Share (yes, you’re allowed to support your future self)

• Watch the YouTube channel for the full breakdown + live tactics

• DM me: Presidents’ Day Sale is ending soon — and the market is not giving extensions
  
  

Imagine it’s March… and you’re not guessing anymore. You’re rotating on purpose. Executing with a checklist. Stacking small edges into a flywheel that funds your life.

One trade. One turn. One moment of clarity. That’s all it takes to start compounding your way to freedom.

If you want 2026 to be the year you stop reacting and start operating… join Time Freedom Trading.

You’ll learn to:

• Trade the retracement instead of chasing breakouts late

• Use the 50MA/200MA like a pro (structure, bias, risk)

• Build a Wealth Operating System that compounds skill into freedom

Because the clock’s not ticking — it’s compounding.
And the market doesn’t pay hope… it pays execution.

Fast-forward 12 months.

It’s December 2026.

The Fed is doing whatever the Fed does.

AI is on its 7th hype cycle.

But here’s the only question that matters:

Are you still hoping rate cuts save your portfolio…
or are you calmly executing a proven trading operating system that funds your lifestyle, your legacy, and your time freedom?

You just read a full breakdown of:

• How the macro winds are shifting.

• Where rotation and reversal trades are setting up.

• How to weaponize something as simple as an engulfing candle for asymmetric entries.

The next move isn’t more information.

It’s installation.

So ask yourself — honestly:

If you keep living  the way you lived in 2025,
will you be any closer to time freedom by next December?

If the answer stings, good. That’s your signal.

Lock in a plan with Time Freedom Trading — the E.D.G.E. system, the $1K Way, the Tactics Newsletter, build a Financial Flywheel — and give your future self a very different December.

Because you’re one trade, one turn, one moment of clarity away from changing your life.

And if this hit you… you already know what you’re supposed to do next.

If you’re paying for trading education but not structuring it properly…
you might be overpaying twice.

Once to learn.

Again at tax time.

Most traders guess.
The IRS doesn’t reward guessing — it rewards structure.

We broke down exactly when trading education may qualify as a tax deduction, how active traders set it up CPA-clean,
and what documentation actually matters.

👉 Read this before your CPA does:

Trading Education Tax Deduction – CPA-Ready Guide

If you’re already investing in your edge… 
why let bad structure erode it?

SEE the Market 
Like a Time Freedom Trader!

Most people stare at charts the way rookies stare at MRI scans —
lots of squiggles… zero understanding… and a whole lot of “uhhh, is this bad?”

Time Freedom Traders don’t look at the market.
We see it — in 3D, in real time, with clarity sharp enough to slice through Wall Street noise.

We see:

• Rotation before it rotates

• Catalysts before they explode

• Turns before they trend

• Opportunities while everyone else is still doom scrolling

This is the difference between traders and operators.
One guesses.
One reads the market like a playbook.

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If you want to see what we see, the way we see it —
you need charts that don’t lie, lag, or limit your edge.

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Because remember —

You’re just one trade away.

• Think like a Trader and Investor
• Build your own "consistency code"
• Grow into Profits with Providence. 

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