Fed Talk of "Higher for longer” is back… 
and it brought friends.

This market feels like it drank three espresso shots, read the Fed minutes, then doom-scrolled Middle East headlines until 2 a.m.  Futures are lower because the Fed basically said, “We might cut… but also we might not… and we definitely want you to stay nervous.” 

Meanwhile, oil is sneaking toward $71, the VIX is camping above 20, gold is back over $5,000, and private markets are doing that classy thing where they whisper “liquidity” and then lock the door. 

Add Iran posture + Cuba oil stress, and traders are pricing a weekend risk tail that feels bigger than a typical headline cycle.

Today’s vibe: 
pre-PCE pause + positioning chess. 
And yes—counter-trend Thursday is lurking like a trapdoor with a smile.

.

1) Fed Minutes =
“Hold… and argue loudly about it.”

Minutes from the Fed’s January meeting showed broad support for holding rates steady, but with real division on how soon (or whether) easing is needed. Translation: the committee is split between “soft landing” and “not yet, champ.”

2) Hassett vs. the NY Fed paper

White House advisor Kevin Hassett publicly ripped a New York Fed tariff paper and called for “discipline” for the authors. That’s not just policy drama—it’s optics risk: markets hate when “independence” becomes a punching bag.

3) Social media’s “Big Tobacco” moment

Zuckerberg taking the stand in a major safety trial is a reminder: regulatory gravity is real, and ad-models don’t love courtroom spotlights.

4) Walmart guidance 
 Consumer: “I’m fine” 
(but also “stop raising stuff”)

WMT slides after softer forward guidance. The quarter beat, the future shrugged. When the biggest retailer says “meh,” the market hears: consumer strength may be decelerating at the margin.

5) Airlines: loyalty is now a credit card subscription

United trimming mileage earning for basic economy unless you’ve got the card is peak 2026 capitalism: “You can fly… but only VIPs get rewarded.”

Blue Owl curbs liquidity after asset sale

Private credit keeps selling the dream of “stock-like returns with bond-like stability”… and then hits you with gated redemptions. This move screams: private markets are fine… until they aren’t liquid. Watch the spillover into risk appetite.

New Balance ‘dad shoes’ dunking on Nike

New Balance sales up 19% to $9.2B in 2025. The market lesson isn’t footwear. It’s this: boring + consistent + focused beats flashy + distracted. (Write that on your trading plan.)

Putin slams U.S. Cuba oil blockade

Russia called U.S. restrictions “unacceptable,” while Cuba’s fuel situation keeps deteriorating. That matters because energy stress is never local—it leaks into shipping, geopolitics, and risk premium.

| Alfred Rappaport

Strengths:
The market still has pockets of leadership and liquidity in mega/quality names, with growth attempting to regain footing even as uncertainty rises. Under the hood, traders are still getting paid when they respect volatility, size correctly, and treat news as a catalyst—not a command.

Weaknesses:
Rates staying sticky keeps pressure on multiples and makes “easy upside” harder. Elevated VIX means the market is emotionally reactive—sharp moves, fakeouts, and intraday reversals are more common. If you’re trading without a plan right now, you’re basically raw-dogging a rollercoaster.

Opportunities:
Event-driven volatility creates premium, mean-reversion setups, and defined-risk trades. With PCE ahead and geopolitics hot, the opportunity is in structure: spreads, hedges, and tactical entries around confirmed levels—not heroic guessing.

Threats:
Geopolitical escalation risk is a weekend grenade. Private credit liquidity headlines can spook broader risk sentiment. And any inflation re-acceleration (oil + sticky services) keeps “higher for longer” alive, which can kneecap small caps and unprofitable growth fast.

Counter-trend Thursday is where weak hands get baptized and strong hands get paid.

The play:

• Assume early move is a head-fake.

• Let the morning swing establish the “stretch” (overextension).

• Then stalk mean-reversion back toward key levels as liquidity returns.

• The mission is not prediction. It’s reaction to confirmed extremes.
  
  

Execution filter (simple):

• If VIX > 20 and oil is trending up, demand tight risk + fast confirmation.

• Look for: gap + stall + reversal signal (not a vibe, a signal).

• Use defined-risk structures: debit spreads or put/call spreads to avoid getting slapped by IV whipsaw.
  
  

Surprising stat (for your trader brain):
During the 2020 crash window, SPY options saw extreme percentage swings—with documented cases showing gains as high as 6,500% in that volatility regime. That’s not “normal.” That’s event-premium on steroids—and it’s why structure matters when volatility goes feral.

Feb 19, 2020: the S&P 500 printed a major closing peak at 3,386.15 before the fastest crash from a new high in modern history unfolded. The “everything is fine” moment turned into “where did my portfolio go?” in weeks.

Surprising stat:
From that Feb 19 peak to the March 23 trough, the S&P 500 fell about 34% in just over a month—speed that forced strategy evolution across the entire market ecosystem.

TFT takeaway:
The market doesn’t ring a bell at the top. It whispers. Then it shoves.

Here’s what only the stock market lets you do: control big exposure with small capital—defined risk, asymmetric upside.

Historical example (event regime: 2020 crash):

• Underlying: S&P 500 fell roughly 34% from Feb 19 to March 23, 2020.

• Options in that period produced documented outsized swings (examples up to 6,500% in SPY options performance studies).
  
  

$10,000 illustration (multi-day):

• You deploy $10,000 into defined-risk SPY put structures during a volatility expansion window (multi-day hold).

• In an extreme regime like March 2020, similar option exposures have shown potential to multiply dramatically (while also carrying real risk of loss if timed poorly).

• A 6,500% style move on $10,000 would be $650,000 (again: regime-specific, not typical, and not guaranteed).
  
  

Why this matters:
This is why we don’t “hope.” We engineer asymmetry when the market offers it.

Today isn’t about being right. 

It’s about being ready.

When VIX stays elevated and headlines are doing parkour, the market’s job is to bait you into emotional decisions. Your job is to stand guard.

Stand firm means you don’t chase.

You don’t revenge trade.
You don’t “just take something” because you feel bored.

Courage isn’t clicking faster.

Courage is waiting for alignment and executing with precision.

Ask yourself:

• What would a disciplined operator do in this tape?

• What’s my plan if I’m wrong—before I’m wrong?

• Am I trading a setup… or soothing my ego?
  
  

Because the difference between a pro and a tourist is simple:
Tourists need action. Operators need confirmation.

And here’s the gut check:
If you can’t control your impulses today, what makes you think you’ll control your portfolio when the real opportunity shows up?

Make 2026 the year you stop spectating and start operating.

• Join Time Freedom Trading and build your Wealth Operating System: setups, risk, rotations, and the mindset to execute under pressure.

• LIKE / SUBSCRIBE / SHARE — help another professional stop getting taxed by ignorance.

• Check the YouTube channel for today’s breakdown and tactical clips.

• DM me “PRESIDENTS DAY SALE” — it’s ending soon, and your future self will not forgive “I’ll do it later.”
  
  

If you keep “watching the market” instead of learning to operate it… what exactly do you think changes by next quarter—besides you getting older?

One trade. One turn. One moment of clarity. 

That’s all it takes to start compounding your way to freedom.

If you want 2026 to be the year you stop reacting and start operating… join Time Freedom Trading.

You’ll learn to:

• Trade the retracement instead of chasing breakouts late

• Use the 50MA/200MA like a pro (structure, bias, risk)

• Build a Wealth Operating System that compounds skill into freedom

Because the clock’s not ticking — it’s compounding.
And the market doesn’t pay hope… it pays execution.

Fast-forward 12 months.

It’s December 2026.

The Fed is doing whatever the Fed does.

AI is on its 7th hype cycle.

But here’s the only question that matters:

Are you still hoping rate cuts save your portfolio…
or are you calmly executing a proven trading operating system that funds your lifestyle, your legacy, and your time freedom?

You just read a full breakdown of:

• How the macro winds are shifting.

• Where rotation and reversal trades are setting up.

• How to weaponize something as simple as an engulfing candle for asymmetric entries.

The next move isn’t more information.

It’s installation.

So ask yourself — honestly:

If you keep living  the way you lived in 2025,
will you be any closer to time freedom by next December?

If the answer stings, good. That’s your signal.

Lock in a plan with Time Freedom Trading — the E.D.G.E. system, the $1K Way, the Tactics Newsletter, build a Financial Flywheel — and give your future self a very different December.

Because you’re one trade, one turn, one moment of clarity away from changing your life.

And if this hit you… you already know what you’re supposed to do next.

If you’re paying for trading education but not structuring it properly…
you might be overpaying twice.

Once to learn.

Again at tax time.

Most traders guess.
The IRS doesn’t reward guessing — it rewards structure.

We broke down exactly when trading education may qualify as a tax deduction, how active traders set it up CPA-clean,
and what documentation actually matters.

👉 Read this before your CPA does:

Trading Education Tax Deduction – CPA-Ready Guide

If you’re already investing in your edge… 
why let bad structure erode it?

SEE the Market 
Like a Time Freedom Trader!

Most people stare at charts the way rookies stare at MRI scans —
lots of squiggles… zero understanding… and a whole lot of “uhhh, is this bad?”

Time Freedom Traders don’t look at the market.
We see it — in 3D, in real time, with clarity sharp enough to slice through Wall Street noise.

We see:

• Rotation before it rotates

• Catalysts before they explode

• Turns before they trend

• Opportunities while everyone else is still doom scrolling

This is the difference between traders and operators.
One guesses.
One reads the market like a playbook.

And it starts with using the right tools.

If you want to see what we see, the way we see it —
you need charts that don’t lie, lag, or limit your edge.

That means TradingView.

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👉 Sign up for TradingView today and start seeing the market like a Time Freedom Trader.

Your clarity starts the moment your charts go HD.

Because remember —

You’re just one trade away.

• Think like a Trader and Investor
• Build your own "consistency code"
• Grow into Profits with Providence. 

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