"AI prints money…
while SaaS gets a forced identity upgrade.”

Last night NVDA walked into earnings like it owned the building… because it does.

A monster beat, another flex on “AI boom is over” doomers, and the market this morning is doing that polite golf clap thing… while quietly updating its risk model like, “Oh. So the robots aren’t done.”

Meanwhile, “SaaSpocalypse” is trending because investors decided every software company is about to get replaced by an AI agent named ChadGPT. 

Jensen basically said: “Relax. You’re wrong.” And honestly? That’s the most bullish sentence in the last 12 hours.

Oh—and DHS shutdown still hanging around like an unpaid tab.

• Jobless Claims: 212K, below expectations → labor still holding up, recession bros still coping.

• Post-NVDA digestion day: futures “meh,” but rotation risk is real (chips vs software).

• Geopolitics simmer: Russia says Cuba situation escalating after deadly incident w/ a U.S.-tagged speedboat → headline risk stays on the table. (Translation: stops matter.)

1) Futures: “Little changed”

Translation: the market is staring at NVDA like it’s the sun. Nobody wants to blink first.

2) NVDA Earnings: AI BOOM lives

• Record quarter, data center = ~91% of sales

• Guidance strong… but the stock reaction is oddly muted (classic “priced in” + “is this the top?” brain).
  
  

3) SaaS “Apocalypse” debate: Jensen says markets overdid it

The real take: SaaS isn’t dying — it’s getting promoted from service to outcome.
If they pivot fast, they win. If they don’t… the market will bury them with their own ARR slide deck.

4) Salesforce: down premarket on mixed guidance + $50B buyback

Buybacks are great… unless your growth story looks like it needs CPR.

• DOW: +0.27%
  Old-money bids are steady.
  Translation: “We’re not panicking… we’re just judging tech quietly.”

• S&P: +0.07%
  The market is basically shrugging.
  This is indecision tape — perfect for traps if you chase candles.

• NASDAQ: −0.04%
  Tiny red, but the message is loud:
  Tech is pausing after the NVDA party… and nobody wants to be the last one dancing.

• RUSSELL: +0.27%
  Small caps are hanging in there.
  That’s a subtle risk-on tell — not a guarantee, but a heartbeat.

• VIX: 17.60
  Volatility is cooling.
  That’s “confidence returning” energy… but also “complacency loading” if headlines hit.

• BITCOIN: $68,035
  Crypto’s still acting like it’s front-running the next liquidity wave.
  Risk appetite isn’t dead — it’s just wearing sunglasses.

• GOLD: $5,177
  Gold staying elevated says:
  “Yes, we like growth… but we also don’t trust adults in charge.”

• SILVER: $86.97
  Silver cooling a bit = less inflation panic, more normalization.
  Still high enough to remind you: fiat is a leaky bucket.

• WTI (Light Crude): $64.30
  Energy is calm.
  Calm oil = calmer inflation math… until geopolitics decides it wants attention.

• Brent: $69.76
  Same story as WTI — controlled, not collapsing.
  That’s supportive for equities.

• 10-Year: 4.041%
  Rates are stable-ish.
  Translation: the bond market isn’t screaming… but it’s not giving tech a free pass either.

• DOLLAR (DXY): 97.71
  Dollar slightly firmer = mild headwind for risk assets.
  Not a wrecking ball — more like a speed limit sign.
  
  

TFT takeaway:
This is a rotation + patience tape.
If you chase, you become liquidity.
If you wait for alignment, you become the one taking it.

| Alfred Rappaport

Strengths

The market still has a growth engine and NVDA just reminded everyone that real revenue beats hot takes. Big tech balance sheets remain the gravity well, and breadth is trying to improve with small caps showing more participation. When leadership expands beyond 7 names, the tape gets healthier — and today’s Russell strength is a quiet signal that risk appetite isn’t dead… it’s just selective.

Weaknesses

Software is in a credibility crisis: guidance misses get punished hard because the street is questioning whether AI eats budgets or accelerates outcomes. The bigger weakness is multiple compression risk — if rates stay sticky and earnings need to keep proving themselves, the market can’t float on vibes. Add DHS shutdown noise and geopolitical flare-ups, and you get a tape that can whipsaw fast.

Opportunities

This is a rotation market. Chips and AI infrastructure look like the “tide,” while software is the “wave” — and waves can be traded when they retrace into power zones. The opportunity is to stalk re-rating moments: SaaS names that convincingly pivot to outcome-based AI (real productivity wins, not chatbot theater) can flip from hated to loved fast. Also: volatility under 20 creates cleaner option pricing for directional plays (when you’re patient).

Threats

Geopolitics is still the wildcard — Cuba headlines + broader tensions keep overnight risk alive. Policy risk is also rising: Washington is pushing harder on chip export controls and oversight, which can hit sentiment around the AI supply chain even when earnings are strong. And if “AI spend fatigue” becomes a real narrative later in 2026, the market can reprice capex expectations violently.

1. Tariff escalation as leverage (reciprocal / emergency frameworks used to pressure trade partners and pursue non-trade goals)
   
   

2. De minimis clampdowns / import enforcement moves affecting cross-border flows
   
   

3. Aggressive trade + tariff executive action cadence (high volume of orders/memos/proclamations tied to tariffs)
   
   

4. Industrial policy posture: protect supply chains, bring capacity home, pressure allies/partners with targeted trade demands
   
   

5. Immigration and international-education regulatory pressure via executive/regulatory actions (ongoing and trackable)
   
   

(Net: policy is being used as a trading instrument. Treat headlines like catalysts, not commentary.)

Playbook idea: Trade the Turn to Earn… but only where rotation + catalyst agree.

What you’re looking for (SUPER SIX lens):

• End-of-month flows + positioning cleanups

• Post-earnings “winner reinforcement” (chips/AI infra)

• “Loser liquidation” getting exhausted (select SaaS)

• VIX under 20 = cleaner directional option structures (no spreads)

• Russell strength = risk-on confirmation

• One catalyst headline can flip the tape (policy/geopolitics)
  
  

Surprising stat to anchor your discipline:
Historically February is basically a coin-flip month for the S&P (average return around ~+0.1% over multi-decade samples), which is why end-of-Feb trading is less about “the month” and more about flows + catalysts.

TFT execution rule:
Don’t chase the first move.
Let the market show its hand.
Then attack the retracement with defined risk.

Stock market wisdom quote (fresh for 2026):

On February 26, 2020, markets were getting dragged by the early COVID panic — not yet the full crash, but the “uh-oh” phase where correlations spike and headlines become the steering wheel. The Dow’s five-day slide around that window erased thousands of points, and safe-haven behavior (gold up, yields down) was already showing up.

TFT takeaway: when fear starts spreading, the first edge is not prediction — it’s positioning + protection. The best traders weren’t brave. They were prepared.

Here’s why the stock market is the greatest legal leverage engine on Earth:

Historical setup (GME mania, Jan 2021):

• GME short interest hit ~122.97% of float — an absurd pressure cooker.

• Stock later printed an intraday peak around $483.

$10,000 option math example (simple call, multi-day):

• Suppose you bought GME call options with $20 strike (100 shares per contract).

• If the stock is $483 near expiration, the call’s intrinsic value is $483 − $20 = $463 per share.

• Each contract’s intrinsic value ≈ $46,300 (because 463 × 100).

• With $10,000, even a small number of contracts can create six-figure exposure fast.

The point: options compress time and amplify correct direction.
That’s leverage.
That’s why we don’t “hope” — we build a system.

If you don’t learn how leverage works… how long are you going to keep donating upside to people who do?

Diligence isn’t “working harder.”

It’s planning cleaner.

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It’s waiting for alignment: catalyst, trend, setup, confirmation — then executing like a professional, not a tourist.

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Fast-forward 12 months.

It’s December 2026.

The Fed is doing whatever the Fed does.

AI is on its 7th hype cycle.

But here’s the only question that matters:

Are you still hoping rate cuts save your portfolio…
or are you calmly executing a proven trading operating system that funds your lifestyle, your legacy, and your time freedom?

You just read a full breakdown of:

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The next move isn’t more information.

It’s installation.

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