Welcome to Wednesday, where the market has apparently decided one crisis wasn't enough. Brent crude spent the overnight session near $95, the 10-year Treasury pushed above 4.8%, the dollar hit a multi-week high, and Nasdaq futures remained soft as renewed U.S.-Iran fighting revived the inflation trade. Translation: oil ↑ → inflation risk ↑ → Fed-hike expectations ↑ → yields ↑ → growth multiples ↓. That is the macro fist coming at technology.

But then corporate America walked in wearing an AI cape. Dell is up roughly 10%, GitLab about 20%+, while MongoDB and Credo are getting punished despite respectable numbers. Then ADP dropped another plot twist at 8:15 AM: private payrolls grew only 38,000, below expectations. 

That softer labor print could relieve some rate pressure—but if oil stays elevated while employment cools, congratulations, Wall Street may start whispering everybody's favorite bedtime story: stagflation. At the open, watch the 10Y → DXY → QQQ → SOXX → AI leaders → breadth chain. If yields cool and Dell/GitLab leadership spreads, the gap-down tape can repair. 

If the 10Y stays above 4.8% and QQQ can't reclaim VWAP, don't confuse a great AI story with a great entry. 

Operator gut-check: are you trading the company—or the environment pricing the company?

August 31st, 2026 Key Earnings 

1 — OIL + 4.8% TREASURIES: THE MACRO CEILING

WHAT?

Renewed U.S.-Iran clashes pushed energy risk back into the market. Brent traded near $95 after approaching $97 overnight.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached approximately 4.81%, while the dollar moved to its strongest level in several weeks.

SO WHAT?

This creates the chain:

Geopolitics → oil → inflation → Fed → yields → equity multiples.

Technology feels that chain disproportionately because long-duration growth valuations are sensitive to discount rates.

NOW WHAT?

Watch:

10Y 4.80%
Brent $95
DXY 100
QQQ VWAP

Those four can tell you more about the opening regime than a random headline.

Trader takeaway

If yields retreat despite oil strength, growth can breathe.

If both oil and yields accelerate, valuation pressure likely remains.

Opportunity / risk

Energy maintains relative-strength potential.

High-duration growth remains vulnerable to multiple compression.

2 — ADP: ONLY +38K PRIVATE JOBS

WHAT?

ADP reported 38,000 private-sector jobs added in August, below expectations and below the prior month's revised gain.

Friday's official BLS employment report remains the larger catalyst.

SO WHAT?

The Fed now faces conflicting inputs:

inflation pressure from energy

versus

slower employment creation.

That's the tension.

NOW WHAT?

Watch the bond market.

A soft jobs print matters only if:

2Y ↓ + 10Y ↓ + dollar ↓

If yields ignore the weak labor number, inflation remains the dominant narrative.

TFT takeaway

THE DATA IS NOT THE SIGNAL. THE REACTION IS THE SIGNAL.

3 — DELL ~+10%: AI INFRASTRUCTURE JUST DROPPED THE MIC

WHAT?

Dell reported record quarterly revenue of $47 billion, up 58% year over year.

Non-GAAP EPS reached $7.04.

Dell raised full-year revenue guidance to $192 billion and non-GAAP EPS guidance to $25.50.

Reuters reported Dell shares nearly 10% higher premarket.

Dell also disclosed a massive AI infrastructure order/backlog picture, with Reuters citing $60 billion in orders and $95 billion of backlog.

SO WHAT?

This directly challenges the idea that hyperscaler AI spending is peaking.

Demand remains enormous.

NOW WHAT?

Watch whether DELL:

holds the gap → holds VWAP → maintains RVOL.

A 10% earnings gap is not automatically an invitation to chase.

Pin Action™

HPE and SMCI become sympathy reads.

Opportunity / risk

Continuation requires institutional follow-through.

The primary risk is exhaustion after a huge premarket repricing.

4 — GTLB +20%+: AI SOFTWARE GETS PAID

WHAT?

GitLab reported Q2 FY2027 revenue of $286.3 million, up 21% year over year.

Management said net ARR growth exceeded 40% year over year.

Shares were trading roughly 20%–23% higher premarket in morning indications.

SO WHAT?

The market has worried that AI coding tools could commoditize traditional developer software.

GitLab's results argue that orchestration, security, governance and context remain valuable even as AI creates more code.

NOW WHAT?

Watch whether GTLB:

holds above the prior 52-week-high area and attracts strong opening volume.

Opportunity / risk

A genuine earnings breakout can produce continuation.

A 20%-plus gap can also become extended quickly.

TFT takeaway

AI disruption does not automatically destroy incumbents. Sometimes it increases the value of the infrastructure around the disruption.

5 — MDB ~-13%: BEATING NUMBERS ISN'T ENOUGH

WHAT?

MongoDB reported revenue of $771.8 million, up 30% year over year, and raised full-year revenue guidance to $2.99–$3.03 billion.

Yet shares were down roughly 12%–13% premarket.

Market concern centered on Atlas growth remaining near 29%, rather than accelerating above expectations.

SO WHAT?

This is the expectation game.

Wall Street does not ask:

Was it good?

It asks:

Was it better than what the price already promised?

NOW WHAT?

Watch:

premarket low → opening VWAP → failed breakdown versus continuation.

Opportunity / risk

Large gaps can create oversold reversals.

But valuation resets can continue far longer than dip buyers expect.

TFT takeaway

GOOD COMPANY. GOOD QUARTER. BAD EXPECTATION GAP.

6 — CRDO ~-8%: AI EXPECTATIONS EAT THEIR OWN CHILDREN

WHAT?

Credo delivered extraordinary headline growth:

Revenue: $479.0M
YoY growth: +114.7%
Non-GAAP EPS: $1.20.

Management guided next-quarter revenue to $525M–$535M.

Despite that, shares traded roughly 7%–9% lower premarket.

SO WHAT?

This is critical.

AI infrastructure remains strong.

But expectations have become enormous.

The market can punish decelerating beats, even when absolute growth is spectacular.

NOW WHAT?

Watch CRDO relative to:

NVDA → AVGO → ANET → DELL.

That tells you whether this is company-specific or a connectivity-theme warning.

TFT takeaway

When everybody knows the story, your edge moves from discovering the story to understanding the expectations embedded in the price.

7 — PANW: AI CYBERSECURITY GROWS, MARGINS GET QUESTIONED

WHAT?

Palo Alto Networks reported quarterly revenue of $3.41 billion, up 34%, with adjusted EPS of $1.02.

Fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $14.10B–$14.20B exceeded consensus estimates cited by Reuters.

Next-Generation Security ARR reached approximately $9.1 billion, according to reported company results.

The shares nevertheless faced modest pressure following concerns over margins/cash-flow expectations.

SO WHAT?

AI creates two businesses simultaneously:

AI productivity

and

AI attack surfaces.

Cybersecurity remains structurally connected to AI deployment.

NOW WHAT?

Watch whether PANW can stabilize despite the macro tape.

Opportunity / risk

Relative strength would validate cyber as a defensive AI subtheme.

Margin concerns could overpower topline growth.

8 — UBER +~2%: WALL STREET APPLAUDS THE CORPORATE DIET

WHAT?

Uber said it will eliminate approximately 3,300 jobs, roughly 10% of its workforce.

The restructuring targets management layers, fragmented teams and operating complexity.

Shares rose approximately 2% premarket.

SO WHAT?

The market is rewarding:

efficiency → margins → capital discipline.

Uber is also reallocating attention toward autonomy and robotaxi competition.

NOW WHAT?

Watch whether the stock can hold its gap while the broader growth tape remains fragile.

Opportunity / risk

Cost reductions can improve operating leverage.

But layoffs alone don't remove competitive risks from Waymo and autonomous mobility.

TFT takeaway

Revenue growth gets applause. Operating leverage gets paid.

9 — HPE +4%–5%: DELL'S PIN ACTION™

WHAT?

Reuters reported Hewlett Packard Enterprise rising about 4.5%–5.4% premarket following Dell's results.

SO WHAT?

Dell's results provide external evidence that AI-server demand isn't isolated to one company.

The market immediately extrapolated demand into peers.

NOW WHAT?

Watch:

DELL → HPE → SMCI

If all three hold strength, that's confirmation.

If only Dell survives, the move is more company-specific.

TFT Pin Action™ lesson

One catalyst moves the primary stock. The information embedded in that catalyst then reprices connected companies.

That's Pin Action™.

Opportunity / risk

Sympathy trades can move rapidly.

But second-order names often fade faster than the primary catalyst.

10 — AVGO + SNOW: TONIGHT'S AI REFERENDUM

WHAT?

Broadcom reports fiscal Q3 2026 earnings after today's close at 5:00 PM ET.

Broadcom's prior company guidance called for approximately $29.4 billion of quarterly revenue, up about 84% year over year.

Snowflake also reports after today's close, with its conference call scheduled for 5:00 PM ET.

SO WHAT?

Tonight gives Wall Street another read on two crucial AI layers:

Broadcom → custom silicon/networking

Snowflake → enterprise data/AI consumption

NOW WHAT?

Watch today's positioning in:

AVGO → NVDA → ANET → MRVL

and

SNOW → DDOG → MDB → GTLB.

Opportunity / risk

Earnings can reset entire subsectors.

Avoid assuming today's pre-earnings move predicts tonight's results.

TFT takeaway

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