Yesterday, $100 oil was a warning. This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics added evidence: August final-demand PPI rose 0.4% month over month and 5.4% year over year, with final-demand goods up 1.1% and energy prices up 4.2%. Diesel fuel alone jumped 24.1% in the month. 

Meanwhile Brent was trading around $102, the 10-year Treasury yield reached roughly 4.87%, and Nasdaq futures were under pressure ahead of the release.

TFT interpretation: the market has moved from “Will higher energy prices matter?” to “How much does the bond market believe they matter?” The sequence to watch after 9:30 is now PPI → 2Y/10Y → dollar → QQQ → SOXX → breadth. 

Oil is the catalyst; rates are the transmission mechanism. 

The competing narrative is still AI earnings and capital spending: TSMC delivered another major revenue number, AeroVironment posted record backlog, and Oracle and Adobe report tonight. If semiconductors stabilize despite 4.8%+ yields, capital is rotating, not fleeing. 

If yields accelerate and SOXX/QQQ lose opening support together, inflation owns the morning. 

Are you trading the inflation headline—or waiting to see where capital actually votes?

THE F.R.E.E. ANSWER™

Yes, today's PPI strengthens the case that energy pressure is feeding broader producer inflation. August final-demand PPI rose 0.4% monthly and 5.4% annually, while goods prices rose 1.1% and energy prices increased 4.2%. With Brent above $100 and the 10-year Treasury near 4.87%, the key equity question is whether higher yields overwhelm still-strong AI and corporate catalysts.

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# 1 — PPI: PRODUCER INFLATION PRINTS 5.4%

WHAT?

The BLS reported August PPI:

+0.4% MoM
+5.4% YoY

Goods:

+1.1%

Energy:

+4.2%

Diesel:

+24.1%.

SO WHAT?

The headline annual number was slightly above the roughly 5.3% consensus cited before the release.

More importantly, energy is visibly entering the producer-price pipeline.

NOW WHAT?

Watch:

2Y → 10Y → DXY → QQQ → SOXX.

Friday's CPI becomes even more important.

TFT actionable takeaway

Do not automatically interpret “hot PPI” as “short stocks.”

First see whether rates confirm the inflation interpretation.

Opportunity / risk

A failed yield breakout could create a relief response.

Acceleration toward 4.9%–5% on the 10Y raises duration risk for growth stocks.

# 2 — BRENT ~$102: $100 OIL ISN'T LEAVING QUIETLY

WHAT?

Brent traded near $102.15 and WTI near $97.50 Thursday morning as attacks and shipping disruptions continued to constrain Middle East energy flows.

Brent has risen roughly 30% since early August, according to Reuters.

SO WHAT?

Oil is no longer merely a commodity story.

It affects:

transportation → producer prices → inflation expectations → Fed pricing → Treasury yields → equity multiples.

NOW WHAT?

Watch whether Brent holds:

$100

That's now both a technical and psychological macro level.

TFT Pin Action™

Oil → refiners → transports → airlines → consumer discretionary → yields.

The second move may matter more than the first.

# 3 — TREASURIES: THE 4.87% PROBLEM

WHAT?

The 10-year Treasury yield reached roughly 4.87% Thursday morning, its highest area since late 2023, while the 30-year traded above 5.3%.

Treasury also scheduled a $6 billion buyback of 10- to 20-year securities, triple the size of previous long-duration operations, while a $22 billion 30-year auction is scheduled later today.

SO WHAT?

This is today's valuation transmission mechanism.

Oil can scream.

PPI can print hot.

But if bonds don't sell further, the equity message changes.

NOW WHAT?

Key relationship:

10Y ↔ QQQ

Then:

10Y ↔ SOXX

TFT takeaway

Don't trade inflation without watching the price of money.

# 4 — TSMC: GREAT AI DATA, WRONG STOCK REACTION

WHAT?

TSMC released its August monthly sales Thursday.

Early market reporting showed record August revenue and approximately 53% year-over-year growth, yet the U.S.-listed shares were modestly lower premarket.

SO WHAT?

This is a critical AI signal.

The fundamental demand story can remain strong while valuation pressure from yields still pushes semiconductor stocks lower.

NOW WHAT?

Watch:

TSM → NVDA → AMD → AVGO → SOXX.

If TSMC's record sales cannot generate relative strength, that tells you something about today's macro regime.

TFT takeaway

THE NUMBER TELLS YOU THE BUSINESS. THE REACTION TELLS YOU THE MARKET.

# 5 — AEROVIRONMENT +~5%: DEFENSE TECH DELIVERS

WHAT?

AeroVironment reported:

Revenue: $480.5 million, +6% YoY
Bookings: approximately $700 million
Book-to-bill: 1.4×
Funded backlog: record $1.5 billion, +37% YoY
Adjusted EPS: $0.59

The company maintained FY2027 revenue guidance of $2.125B–$2.225B. Shares were approximately 5% higher premarket in early market data.

SO WHAT?

This is an actual demand receipt for autonomous defense technology.

NOW WHAT?

Watch:

gap hold + opening RVOL + VWAP.

Opportunity / risk

Strong backlog supports visibility.

Government-contract timing and execution remain material risks.

# 6 — COOPERCOMPANIES -~16%: GUIDANCE BEATS BUYBACKS

WHAT?

CooperCompanies reported Q3 revenue of $1.066 billion, up 1% YoY, and non-GAAP EPS of $1.15.

The company updated FY2026 revenue guidance to approximately $4.229B–$4.252B and Q4 organic growth guidance to 0%–2%.

Shares were down about 16.6% premarket despite an expanded $3 billion share-repurchase authorization.

SO WHAT?

Buybacks don't magically erase slowing expectations.

Wall Street grades tomorrow.

NOW WHAT?

Watch for:

opening capitulation vs failed bounce.

TFT lesson

CAPITAL RETURN CANNOT HIDE AN EXPECTATION GAP.

#7 — AMERICAN EAGLE -~12%: RECORD SALES, WRONG MIX

WHAT?

American Eagle reported record Q2 revenue of $1.38 billion, up 8%.

Comparable sales rose 6%.

But underneath the portfolio:

Aerie comps: +19%
American Eagle comps: -1%.

Management also indicated merchandise-margin pressure at the namesake brand.

Shares were approximately 12% lower premarket.

SO WHAT?

Aggregate revenue hid a major internal divergence.

That's exactly why traders must look below the headline.

NOW WHAT?

Watch whether AEO finds buyers around the opening low or continues price discovery.

TFT 3D lesson

Company → brand → product mix.

The company beat.

The weak component changed the story.

# 8 — NAVAN -~15%: BEAT + RAISE + SELL

WHAT?

Navan reported:

Revenue: $232.8 million, +35%
Adjusted EPS: $0.05
Gross booking volume: $3 billion, +45%

The company raised full-year guidance and announced its acquisition of AI-powered events platform BoomPop.

Yet operating expenses increased 46% to $200.2 million, and shares fell roughly 15%–17% in post-earnings trading.

SO WHAT?

Growth wasn't the problem.

The cost of growth was.

NOW WHAT?

Watch whether investors reprice the expense trajectory rather than headline revenue.

TFT takeaway

REVENUE GROWTH IS NOT FREE CASH FLOW WITH BETTER PR.

# 9 — ORACLE: TONIGHT'S AI INFRASTRUCTURE RECEIPT

WHAT?

Oracle reports fiscal Q1 2027 results after today's close.

Oracle confirms the release is scheduled for September 10, followed by its earnings webcast at 4:00 PM Central Time.

Market estimates cited ahead of the report call for roughly $19 billion in revenue, about 28% higher year over year.

SO WHAT?

Oracle is one of the market's cleanest tests of the AI infrastructure investment cycle:

cloud demand → data centers → GPUs → networking → power → financing.

NOW WHAT?

The key isn't simply EPS.

Listen for:

OCI growth
RPO/backlog
AI customer concentration
capex
financing requirements.

TFT Pin Action™

ORCL can move:

NVDA / AVGO / networking / data-center infrastructure / power.

# 10 — ADOBE: AI DISRUPTION GETS AN EARNINGS TEST

WHAT?

Adobe reports fiscal Q3 results tonight.

Wall Street estimates cited ahead of earnings call for approximately:

Revenue: $6.69 billion
Adjusted EPS: $6.08.

The stock is down materially in 2026 as investors debate whether generative AI strengthens Adobe's ecosystem or disrupts parts of its traditional creative-software moat.

SO WHAT?

This is the opposite side of the AI trade.

Oracle asks:

How much money can AI infrastructure make?

Adobe asks:

What happens when AI attacks incumbent software economics?

NOW WHAT?

Watch:

AI ARR → Creative Cloud growth → pricing → user engagement → monetization.

TFT takeaway

Hardware sells the picks and shovels.

Software still has to prove who owns the customer

MORNING CASE STUDY

PPI → 10Y → QQQ

FACT

August PPI:

+5.4% YoY

Energy:

+4.2% MoM

10-year Treasury before the release:

~4.87%

Brent:

~$102.

INFERENCE

The market now has both:

commodity-price evidence

and

producer-price evidence

supporting inflation concern.

TFT INTERPRETATION

That still does not automatically equal:

Sell QQQ.

The actual trade chain is:

PPI

→ Yields react

→ Dollar reacts

→ Growth valuation reacts

→ SOXX/QQQ confirm

→ Breadth confirms

Only then does the story become a tradable market signal.

THE TFT POINT OF VIEW™

SEE THE MARKET IN 3D™

MARKET

PPI
Oil
Treasuries
Dollar
Fed expectations

SECTOR

Energy
Semiconductors
Software
Defense technology
Consumer discretionary

STOCK

TSM
AVAV
COO
AEO
NAVN
ORCL
ADBE

The amateur sees:

“Inflation hot.”

The Operator sees:

“Where did capital reprice after inflation came in hot?”

That's the difference between news consumption and market intelligence.

OPENING-BELL OPERATOR POSTURE

CAUTIOUS / DATA-DEPENDENT
 — NO BLIND RISK-ON

Bullish confirmation: 10Y fails to extend above the morning highs, oil cools, SOXX regains relative strength, TSM stabilizes, QQQ holds VWAP and breadth improves.

Bearish confirmation: 10Y drives toward 4.90%+, Brent maintains ~$102 or accelerates, DXY strengthens, semiconductors underperform and QQQ loses VWAP with expanding negative breadth.

Mixed signals: NO TRADE ZONE™.

Today's discipline is simple:

PPI CREATED THE STORY.

THE BOND MARKET DECIDES WHETHER YOU TRADE IT.