The Get F.R.E.E. Premarket Report isn’t your average Wall Street snooze-fest. It’s your daily briefing—your morning intel—delivered with clarity, edge, and just enough snark to keep you caffeinated before the opening bell. Every edition breaks down the moves that matter: futures flow, Fed fireworks, political curveballs, sector rotations, and premarket movers that can make or break your day. Expect a SWOT analysis to sharpen your edge, a mindset reset to keep you disciplined, and a Bible truth that ties it all back to purpose. This isn’t noise—it’s navigation. Because in this game, you don’t need more headlines, you need clarity, conviction, and the courage to pull the trigger.
Friday September 25th, 2026
THE BOND MARKET BROUGHT A BASEBALL BAT. AI BROUGHT AN $11.6 BILLION CHECK.
Friday morning is giving us a clean battle between the price of money and the price investors are willing to pay for AI growth.
Dow futures were +0.26%, S&P 500 futures +0.25%, and Nasdaq-100 futures +0.26%. That's happening while Brent remains above $100 and the 10-year Treasury sits around 5.1% after briefly reaching 5.2251% overnight, a 19-year high. Meanwhile, Fed funds futures still imply roughly a 71% probability of another Fed hike in October. Reuters
So why isn't technology hiding under the desk?
AI just produced a very large receipt. Akamai Technologies announced an $11.6 billion, seven-year agreement with Anthropic, potentially expanding to roughly $20 billion, and AKAM surged 18.5% premarket. AMD, MRVL, Cerebras and Intel were all up more than 1%, while Meta sits within 1% of a $2 trillion market value. That's powerful Pin Action™—but the bond market hasn't surrendered. AI demand ↑ → semis ↑ → QQQ ↑ is fighting oil ↑ → inflation risk ↑ → Fed expectations ↑ → yields ↑ → valuation pressure ↑. The opening bell will tell us which chain owns the tape.
Operator gut-check: When QQQ rises while the cost of capital is still flashing red, are you seeing confirmation—or merely enthusiasm?
THE F.R.E.E. ANSWER™
Nasdaq futures are outperforming Friday because renewed AI demand is temporarily overpowering pressure from high oil prices and Treasury yields. Akamai surged 18.5% after announcing an $11.6 billion Anthropic cloud agreement, while multiple chipmakers gained more than 1%. But Brent remains above $100, the 10-year yield is near 5.1%, and markets still price about a 71% chance of an October Fed hike.
* Pre Market Screener did not provide any notable movers that meet TFT criteria.
10 MOVES. ONE MARKET.
- Nasdaq futures are +0.69% while the 10-year hangs around 5.1%,
- because apparently AI looked at the bond vigilantes and said, “Cute.”
- Akamai is up 18.5% after Anthropic dropped an $11.6 billion cloud commitment on the table;
- AMD, MRVL, INTC and Cerebras are following the money;
- Meta is flirting with $2 trillion;
- Brent remains above $100;
- Durable Goods puts manufacturing demand under the microscope;
- Fed speakers get another chance to remind Wall Street that money isn't free;
- Costco just printed double-digit sales growth;
- and People is jumping as the MGM deal soap opera develops another episode.
The market's Friday argument is simple:
AI says GROWTH. BONDS say PROVE IT.
The Operator doesn't choose a team.
The Operator watches which one attracts capital.
TODAY'S DATA CLOCK™
Our ZERO-MISS™ reconciliation identified two major scheduled data points.
8:30 AM ET — AUGUST DURABLE GOODS
The Census Bureau officially scheduled August's Advance Durable Goods report for this morning at 8:30 AM ET. July orders rose 1.1% to $339.3 billion. Census.gov
At this report's cutoff, the Census release page had not yet reliably populated the August actual in its indexed primary-source page. I am therefore not inserting an unverified actual.
10:00 AM ET — FINAL SEPTEMBER MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT
The preliminary September reading was 47.8, down from 51.7 in August. More importantly for bonds, preliminary one-year inflation expectations jumped from 4.0% to 4.6%, while long-run expectations increased to 3.4%. The final report arrives at 10 AM ET. Financial Juice
That's potentially important with oil still above $100.
Fed speakers
Reuters also flags New York Fed President John Williams, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack as scheduled speakers today.
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TIME FREEDOM TRADING™ • MARKET INTELLIGENCE
SEP 21–25, 2026
THE WEEK AHEAD™
KNOW THE CATALYST BEFORE THE CANDLE.™
TFT WEEKLY READ™
Wednesday is the week's CATALYST CLUSTER™:
U.S. Flash PMI tests the growth narrative before the market
moves into Fed commentary, McDonald's Investor Update,
Okta's keynote and Investor Summit, and Meta Connect.
Thursday shifts the focus toward labor, the current account
and housing before Friday's durable-goods and consumer read.
CATALYST SCAN™
ECONOMIC DATA
FED / RATES
HOUSING
EARNINGS
INVESTOR / ANALYST DAYS
AI / TECH / PRODUCT
GEOPOLITICS / POLICY
ZERO-MISS RECONCILIATION™
Macro calendar + official release schedules +
Fed calendar + company IR + technology-event calendars.
CALENDAR RECONCILED
WEDNESDAY • SEP 23
CATALYST CLUSTER™
MACRO FIRST. THEN CORPORATE EXPECTATIONS.
9:45 AM Flash PMI → 10:05 AM Fed Barr →
McDonald's Investor Update → Okta Keynote + Investor Summit →
Meta Connect keynote.
THE BIG 3™ • REPRICING WATCH
01 • GROWTH / RATES
U.S. FLASH PMI
9:45 AM ET.
Manufacturing + Services.
Pin Action™:
2Y → 10Y → DXY → QQQ.
02 • AI
META CONNECT 2026
AI technologies, AI glasses,
VR and Horizon.
Pin Action™:
META → AI complex → SOXX → QQQ.
03 • LABOR / HOUSING
THURSDAY DATA STACK
Claims + current account +
New Home Sales.
Pin Action™:
TNX → DXY → ITB/XHB → QQQ.
TODAY'S DATA CLOCK™
WEDNESDAY • SEP 23
Scheduled market-moving U.S. macro and policy events,
shown chronologically before corporate catalysts.
9:45 AM ET
S&P GLOBAL U.S. FLASH MANUFACTURING PMI
2Y • TNX • DXY • QQQ
Growth and inflation signal.
Watch the bond market's interpretation first.
9:45 AM ET
S&P GLOBAL U.S. FLASH SERVICES PMI
SPY • QQQ • TNX • DXY
Services growth remains critical to the
broader U.S. economic-growth signal.
9:45 AM ET
U.S. FLASH COMPOSITE PMI
SPY • QQQ • RATES
Combined manufacturing/services read.
Watch yields for the market's verdict.
10:05 AM ET
FED GOVERNOR MICHAEL BARR
2Y • TNX • DXY • QQQ
Economic outlook and housing.
Watch the 2Y first for policy sensitivity.
FULL CATALYST CALENDAR™
THE WEEK AT A GLANCE
Economic data is reconciled first.
Corporate and market catalysts are then layered onto the same timeline.
MONDAY
SEP 21
MARKET SESSION
POST-FED MARKET RESET
SPY • QQQ • TNX
MACRO
Watch yields, AI leadership,
breadth and overall risk appetite.
TUESDAY
SEP 22
BMO
AUTOZONE Q4 EARNINGS
AZO
EARNINGS
Same-store sales, margins,
commercial business and repair demand.
SEP 22–24
OKTANE 2026
OKTA
AI / TECH
AI identity, machine identity,
agent security and product announcements.
Economic data can reprice the cost of capital.
Earnings can reprice a company.
Investor Days can reprice future expectations.
AI and product events can reprice growth and TAM.
Fed commentary can reprice the path of money.
CATALYST CREATES THE MOVE.
CONFIRMATION GIVES PERMISSION.™
PIN ACTION™:
What ticker, sector, yield or asset should react
if this catalyst actually matters?
TIME FREEDOM TRADING™ • HOUSING INTELLIGENCESEPTEMBER 22, 2026
HOUSING HEALTH MONITOR™
Demand • Construction • Sentiment • Capital Flow • Credit Stress • Forced Supply
Housing remains constrained by the price of money. Demand and builder
sentiment are soft, foreclosure pressure is rising year over year, but
foreclosure activity remains below pre-pandemic norms. Strong homeowner
equity remains an important buffer against financial stress becoming
forced housing supply.
THE HOUSING 4™ • CURRENT READ
RED • WEAKENING
EXISTING HOME SALES
3.98M
AUG SAAR −2.0% MoM • −1.2% YoY Inventory: 4.9 months
YELLOW • MIXED
HOUSING STARTS
1.275M
AUG SAAR −2.6% MoM • −1.2% YoY Single-family +7.6% MoM
RED • WEAKENING
NEW HOME SALES
607K
JUL SAAR −10.5% MoM New August reading due Sep 24
RED • WEAKENING
NAHB HMI
32
SEP Prior 35 Buyer traffic: 23
HOUSING MARKET ACTION™ • PIN ACTION™
WATCH THE BUILDERS BEFORE DECLARING THE CYCLE TURNED.
Track LEN → DHI → PHM → TOL → ITB / XHB alongside the 10-year Treasury
and mortgage rates. Strength in housing equities while economic data
remain weak can signal improving capital expectations before the
backward-looking housing data turn. It is a divergence to investigate,
not automatic confirmation.
NEXT HOUSING CATALYST™:
August New Home Sales • Thursday, Sep. 24 • 10:00 AM ET
FORECLOSURE PRESSURE MONITOR™
WATCH • NOT BREAKING
TFT READ™ —
Foreclosure pressure is deteriorating year over year, but rising stress
is not the same as systemic distress. The key question is whether
delinquencies continue through foreclosure into enough REO and forced
inventory to pressure home prices.
DISTRESS PIPELINE™ • AUGUST 2026
YELLOW • RISING
FORECLOSURE FILINGS
40,277
+1% MoM • +13% YoY
1 in every 3,569 U.S. housing units
YELLOW • WATCH
FORECLOSURE STARTS
25,894
−3% MoM • +7% YoY
RED • ACCELERATING
COMPLETED FORECLOSURES / REO
5,794
+22% MoM • +42% YoY
YELLOW • PIPELINE
MORTGAGE DELINQUENCY
4.37%
Q2 2026
+44 bps YoY
RED • DETERIORATING
SERIOUS DELINQUENCY
2.06%
90+ days / foreclosure
+49 bps YoY
GREEN • EQUITY BUFFER
NEGATIVE EQUITY
2.1%
97.9% not underwater
Average LTV ~44%
ATTOM • AUGUST 2026 FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY BY STATE
MONTHLY DISTRESS MAP™
HOW TO READ IT:
The map shows where foreclosure pressure is geographically concentrated.
One state's deterioration does not establish a national housing break.
The signal becomes more important when elevated foreclosure activity
broadens across states and metros while REO inventory increases.
AUGUST DISTRESS HOT SPOTS™
#1 SOUTH CAROLINA — 1 in every 1,547 housing units
#2 NEVADA — 1 in every 1,920
#3 FLORIDA — 1 in every 2,397
#4 TEXAS — 1 in every 2,445
#5 MARYLAND — 1 in every 2,530
TFT QUESTION:
Is foreclosure pressure staying concentrated —
or beginning to broaden across the country?
A foreclosure filing is an early-warning signal—not automatically a
housing crisis. Risk rises when borrowers continue progressing through
the pipeline and completed foreclosures create forced inventory faster
than buyers can absorb it.
Positive homeowner equity can provide alternatives to foreclosure.
That is why balance-sheet capacity must be analyzed alongside the
direction of delinquency and foreclosure data.
THE TFT BREAKAGE TEST™
SLOWING = transactions weaken.
STRESS = delinquencies rise.
BREAKING = distress becomes forced supply faster than buyers can absorb it.
THE COMPLETE HOUSING CHAIN™
10Y TREASURY
→ MORTGAGE RATES
→ AFFORDABILITY
→ BUYER DEMAND
→ BUILDER SENTIMENT
→ CONSTRUCTION
→ HOME SALES
→ CREDIT STRESS
→ FORECLOSURE
→ FORCED INVENTORY
→ HOME PRICES
HOUSING DOESN'T START WITH THE HOUSE.
IT STARTS WITH THE PRICE OF MONEY.™
Yesterday technology struggled against higher rates.
This morning technology is outperforming while rates remain elevated.
That's materially different.
NOW WHAT?
Watch:
10Y → SOXX → QQQ → breadth
If QQQ and semis continue advancing while the 10Y stays near 5.1%, that's meaningful relative strength.
If yields rise and QQQ immediately loses leadership, yesterday's discount-rate problem is back.
TFT opportunity/risk: Trade the confirmation, not the green futures.
#2 — AKAM +18.5% | Anthropic writes an $11.6B AI infrastructure check
This is today's most important individual-stock catalyst.
WHAT?
Akamai Technologies announced a seven-year, $11.6 billion contractual commitment from Anthropic for Akamai Cloud infrastructure and software supporting CPU workloads.
The agreement can expand by another $9 billion, potentially bringing the total commitment to roughly $20 billion. Akamai
AKAM surged approximately 18.5% premarket. Reuters
There's another important number:
Akamai estimates approximately $5.5 billion of capital expenditure related to the initial commitment and expects about $1.7 billion of additional 2026 capex to secure critical components, including memory. Akamai
SO WHAT?
Yesterday Oracle demonstrated the risk side of AI infrastructure.
Reuters reported AMD, Marvell, Cerebras and Intel each gaining more than 1% premarket, with Nvidia also higher. Reuters
SO WHAT?
This is precisely what we wanted to see after yesterday's Oracle infrastructure concern:
Does the market treat ORCL's problems as company-specific—or as evidence that the entire AI buildout is deteriorating?
Today's early answer is:
Company-specific—for now.
Anthropic's Akamai commitment provides fresh evidence that actual AI infrastructure demand remains enormous.
NOW WHAT?
Don't watch AKAM alone.
Watch whether:
AKAM ↑ → AMD ↑ → NVDA ↑ → MRVL ↑ → SOXX ↑ → QQQ ↑
If that chain persists after 9:30, we have confirmation.
If AKAM remains isolated, we have a stock story.
That's the difference.
#4 — 10Y TREASURY | 5% is no longer theoretical
WHAT?
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield surged through 5% and reached 5.2251% overnight, its highest level in 19 years, before Reuters' U.S. morning report showed it around 5.1%. Reuters
SO WHAT?
This remains the market's biggest counterweight.
At 5%+ risk-free yields, investors have alternatives.
Equities don't merely compete with other equities.
They compete with the bond market.
NOW WHAT?
Watch whether 5% becomes:
support for yields
or
exhaustion after the spike.
For QQQ:
10Y ↓ + SOXX ↑ = constructive
10Y ↑ + SOXX ↓ = warning
TFT takeaway
WATCH THE PRICE OF MONEY.™
#5 — BRENT > $100 | Inflation refuses to leave the party
WHAT?
Brent remained above $100 per barrel Friday morning as markets watched negotiations over a potential path toward ending the U.S.-Iran conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters
SO WHAT?
Oil remains part of the inflation transmission mechanism:
Meta Platforms entered Friday less than 1% from a $2 trillion market capitalization and was positioned for its fifth consecutive weekly gain—its strongest five-week advance since January 2023. Shares were roughly flat premarket. Reuters
The underlying catalyst remains Muse. Meta's AI agent had generated 2.8 million downloads in its first 12 days, while the stock had risen more than 20% since Muse's September 8 launch as of Reuters' earlier-week reporting. Reuters
SO WHAT?
Meta is becoming an important test of whether consumer AI adoption can become monetizable AI distribution.
NOW WHAT?
Watch:
META → AMD/NVDA → SOXX → QQQ
A clean $2T breakout accompanied by technology breadth would matter more than the headline milestone itself.
#7 — DURABLE GOODS | 8:30 AM manufacturing test
WHAT?
The Census Bureau scheduled August Durable Goods Orders for 8:30 AM ET today. July orders increased 1.1% to $339.3 billion, with ex-transportation orders up 0.4%. Census.gov
SO WHAT?
Durable goods provide information about manufacturing demand and business investment.
With yields already above 5%, today's interpretation matters more than usual.
A stronger report can be:
economically positive
while simultaneously:
rate-negative
if traders believe it gives the Fed more reason to remain restrictive.
NOW WHAT?
Read:
DURABLE GOODS → 2Y → 10Y → DXY → QQQ
Not merely the headline.
Read the bond market's interpretation.
“The market pays you for being right… but only after it tests your patience.”
— Ed Seykota
#8 — FED | 71% October hike probability
WHAT?
CME pricing cited by Reuters showed traders assigning approximately a 71% probability of at least another 25-basis-point Fed increase in October, up from around 50% earlier this week. Reuters
Fed Presidents Williams, Schmid and Hammack are scheduled to speak Friday. Reuters
SO WHAT?
The market's debate isn't simply:
“Will AI grow?”
It's:
“How much is that growth worth at a higher risk-free rate?”
NOW WHAT?
Watch the 2-year Treasury first during Fed commentary.
Then:
2Y → 10Y → DXY → SOXX → QQQ
#9 — COSTCO | The consumer is still spending
Costco Wholesale reported fiscal Q4 net sales of $93.87 billion, up 11.2% year over year. Comparable sales increased 9.4%, or 6.7% excluding gasoline-price and FX effects. Digitally enabled comparable sales increased 19.5%. StockAnalysis.com
Membership-fee income increased 7.3% to $1.849 billion, and U.S./Canada renewal reached 92.3%. StockAnalysis.com
SO WHAT?
Costco gives us another consumer signal:
Consumers may dislike the economy in surveys while continuing to spend selectively at value-oriented businesses.
That's particularly interesting ahead of today's final Michigan sentiment report.
And at 10:00 AM ET, watch Michigan inflation expectations.
If consumer inflation expectations climb while Brent remains above $100, the bond market could take the microphone right back.
Today's scoreboard is beautifully simple:
AI DEMAND vs. THE PRICE OF MONEY
Don't predict the winner.
Watch where the capital goes.™
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